Vericel (VCEL)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$42.53-1.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vericel’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.87 → 0.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	112.37M
EPS	—	0.569
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	336.25M
EPS	—	0.535
Gross margin	About 75%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	392.97M
EPS	—	0.866

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Burn Care revenue grows at least 21% YoY	Burn Care revenue nearly doubles, rising 91% to $12 million.	Intact	Burn Care revenue growth falls below 21% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
MACI revenue grows at least 20% YoY	MACI revenue grows 22% to $56.4 million, supporting sustained growth.	Intact	MACI revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin at least 27%	Profit margins remain strong with guidance for 27% operating margin in 2026.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 20% in FY26	Operating margin: 0.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=27%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.560311 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7c8a0fbd-4bab-4b35-8b34-e8c4bbc7f123. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total net revenue grew from $52.6M in 2026-Q1 to $77.5M in 2026-Q2 (+22% YoY), with first half 2026 revenue up 26% to $145.9M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $330-$340M. Management consistently emphasizes sustained high revenue, profit, and cash flow growth, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue grows at least 20% YoY	Vericel grows total revenue 30% year over year, reaching $68.4 million in Q1 2026.	Improving	Total revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Total net revenue grew from $52.6M in 2026-Q1 to $77.5M in 2026-Q2 (+22% YoY), with first half 2026 revenue up 26% to $145.9M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $330-$340M. Management consistently emphasizes sustained high revenue, profit, and cash flow growth, and the financials show delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.87

$0.88 → $0.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.39B

$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.88	$388,624,275	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.88	$388,624,275	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.92	$389,344,120	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.88	$391,494,337	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$0.89	$392,433,120	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$0.88	$392,906,075	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$0.88	$392,950,975	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.87	$392,960,350	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.87	$392,960,350	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 14 · prior Jul 16

$54.00 → $52.00-3.7%

$0$29.70$59.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Burn Care revenue grows at least 21% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
MACI revenue grows at least 20% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating margin at least 27%Published status: Broken
Total revenue grows at least 20% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vericel outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VCEL is a growth-focused healthcare business, with MACI and Burn Care driving strong recent revenue gains. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is still marked by losses and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Vericel

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure places VCEL at a 79% premium to peers, while the stated divergence driver calls it cheap versus peers. The model has low confidence, and the expectations gap is essentially neutral, so the evidence does not show a clear cushion or a large expectations mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, execution has been strong: first-half revenue rose 26%, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance. MACI and Burn Care growth are on track with stated priorities, though a 41% estimated chance of a miss and recent peer misses make the next report a risk to watch.

What Vericel hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining revenue and profit growth, including continued MACI expansion and Burn Care adoption. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strength among healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; weakening job growth could add recession concerns.

Bottom line

VCEL’s 1-to-3-year business setup is supported by strong growth and management execution, but ongoing losses, valuation uncertainty, and the risk around the next report remain important constraints. The thesis is intact, with future progress hinging on delivery against guidance and continued product growth. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	112.37M
EPS	—	0.569
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	336.25M
EPS	—	0.535
Gross margin	About 75%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	392.97M
EPS	—	0.866

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.87

$0.88 → $0.87 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.39B

$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.88	$388,624,275	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.88	$388,624,275	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.85	$388,685,380	5 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.92	$389,344,120	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.88	$391,494,337	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$0.89	$392,433,120	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$0.85	$392,911,080	5 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$0.88	$392,795,375	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$0.88	$392,906,075	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$0.88	$392,950,975	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$0.87	$392,954,725	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$0.87	$392,960,350	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$0.87	$392,960,350	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$0.86	$392,955,700	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$0.87	$392,970,213	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings