Vericel (VCEL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
$38.99-0.23%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating margin at least 27%: TTM operating margin 6.0% vs 27% target.
Vericel grows total revenue 30% year over year, reaching $68.4 million in Q1 2026. MACI revenue grows 22% to $56.4 million, supporting sustained growth. Burn Care revenue nearly doubles, rising 91% to $12 million. Profit margins remain strong with guidance for 27% operating margin in 2026.
Burn Care revenue growth could slow or reverse, hurting total revenue. High valuation with a PE of 111.79 risks a sharp correction if growth slows. MACI growth may not sustain 20% quarterly increases as competition intensifies.
The market prices in about 21% revenue growth and values shares roughly 21% above our fair value near $39. Our fair value is 16% below the Street median, reflecting some valuation caution. We see growth aligned with consensus but note valuation risk.
Breaks if: Burn Care revenue growth falls below 21% YoY next year
Breaks if: MACI revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next year
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 20% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on sustained growth in revenue and profit. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and management's commitment to growth.
The market currently prices VCEL at a premium compared to its peers, indicating expectations for continued strong performance. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that some growth may already be factored into the valuation.
Management is on track to sustain high revenue growth, particularly in MACI and Burn Care segments. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk due to the potential for industry-wide earnings misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on maintaining revenue growth and navigating sector dynamics. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in guidance during upcoming calls.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Total revenue growth falls below 20% YoY next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VCEL's performance will depend on its ability to continue executing its growth strategies amid a mixed economic backdrop. Not investment advice.