Reading USAU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USAU free→
US Gold Corp. (USAU)
NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$16.12+4.95%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 98% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Gold
- Market cap
- $253.46M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-09-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$8.06consensus
Range $8.06 – $8.06
vs price: +100% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$5.20consensus
Range $5.20 – $5.20
vs price: +210% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $16 USAU trades at 2× p/s — 2.0× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.19 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
2.3x
peer 1.2x · own history —
Premium
2.0x peer
Growth the price needs
97%
our forecast -27%
Our fair value
$8.19
range $8.19 – $8.19
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 97% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
9th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to fall when the dollar strengthens.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +8.3% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.24 → $-0.22 (+8.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme copper/electrification.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$307.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$651.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,912.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes in the FOMC's economic outlook
Why it matters: The FOMC's outlook can impact market conditions. This affects US Gold Corp.'s operations and investor sentiment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:FOMC decision on June 17 shows a more positive economic outlook.
Confirms the other:The FOMC decision on June 17 shows a negative or careful view of the economy.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for USAU yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Materials sector revenue growth turning positive
- Watch for trends in unemployment claims impacting demand
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NEM, CDE, and RGLD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting USAU and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit USAU and other Materials names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like NEM, CDE, and RGLD start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping USAU and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits USAU and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If USAU misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-01-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2025-12-235mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 23, 2025, U.S. Gold Corp. (the “Company”) entered into a series of securities purchase agreements (the “Purchase Agreements”) with certain investors (the “Purchasers”), for the sale and issuance in a non-brokered private placement of an aggregate of 1,922,159 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share, at a purchase price of $16.25 per share. In addition, the Company agreed to issue to the Purchasers, unregistered c…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.