Reading CDE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDE free→Reading CDE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDE free→NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is high, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CDE's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 CDE trades at 17× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $19–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 84%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.33 (-17.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$296.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$726.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,318.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Coeur Mining's performance and market conditions. It is a key event for investors.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows a big rise in revenue or profit from last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a decline in revenue or profit compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CDE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Coeur Mining, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release shall be deemed furnished, not filed, for purposes of this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $40.00 (median $25.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gold.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | fair | high |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGI Alamos Gold Inc | — | — | elevated |
HMY HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD | — | — | high |
21 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Coeur Mining has expanded its share repurchase program to $750 million.
Coeur Mining plans to maintain a semi-annual dividend of $0.02 per share.
Coeur Mining expects capital expenditures to be between $291 million and $337 million for 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show the materials sector is recovering. This could help Coeur Mining.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -1 percent for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously announced, on November 2, 2025, Coeur Mining, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Coeur”), New Gold Inc., a corporation existing under the laws of the Province of British Columbia, Canada (“New Gold”), and 1561611 B.C. LTD, a corporate organized and existing under the laws of the Province of British Columbia, Canada and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coeur (“Canadian Sub”), agreed to a strategic business combination transaction (the “…
Other Events. Coeur Mining, Inc. (the “Company”) previously announced an expanded $750 million share repurchase program on March 23, 2026 (the “Plan”). As of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, May 15, 2026, the Company had made repurchases of 3,989,969 shares of its common stock at an average price of $17.46 per share of common stock, for a total of approximately $69.7 million in repurchases. Of these repurchases, approximately 3,175,840 shares of common stock at a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On Wednesday, May 13, 2026, Kenneth J. Watkinson, Coeur Mining, Inc.'s (“Coeur” or the “Company”) Vice President, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer informed the Company of his intention to retire in early 2027. Mr. Watkinson is expected to remain in his current role until August 10, 2026, thereafter continuing as Vice President, Acc…
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that its Board had declared an inaugural dividend of $0.02 per share of common stock, expected to be paid on June 10, 2026 to stockholders of record at the close of business on May 25, 2026. Due to an NYSE market holiday on May 25, 2026, the effective record date will be May 22, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.