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AMEXMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 IDR trades at 27× p/e — 1.3× the 20× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $21 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 74%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Crisis regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.33 (+22.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$330.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$930.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,996.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The accounting firm recently quit. This could change financial reports. It may lower investor trust.
Confirms:A new accounting firm is now in place. There are no more issues.
Disproves:There are more delays in hiring a new accounting firm. This could cause problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IDR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. (a) Resignation of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm. On June 3, 2026, we were notified that Assure CPA, LLC, which served as the independent registered public accounting firm of Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (the “Company”), merged into Sadler, Gibb & Associates, LLC pursuant to an asset purchase agreement. As a result of the transaction, Assure CPA, LLC ceased operations as a public accounting firm and resigned as the Company’s in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gold.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IDR Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | high |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | fair | high |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGI Alamos Gold Inc | — | — | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Focus on sustaining strong financial results and operational efficiency.
Continue efforts to improve operational efficiency and cost management.
Continue to drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: The sector is in decline. Positive revenue growth would signal a potential turnaround for the company.
Confirms:Company reports revenue growth of more than 0% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue continues to decline or remains flat year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 29, 2025, Idaho Strategic Resources, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Sales Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Roth Capital Partners, LLC (the “Sales Agent”) that reduced the commission to the Sales Agent from 3% to 2.5%. In accordance with the terms of the Agreement, the Company may offer and sell from time to time through or to the Sales Agent, as agent or principal, the Company’s Common stock having an aggregate offering price of u…