Reading UPS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UPS free→Reading UPS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UPS free→NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact UPS's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $110.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $109 UPS trades at 16× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $182 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $111–$127. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.59 → $1.65 (+3.6% / 30d). 13 raised, 6 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 46% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,027.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts shipping volumes, which are crucial for UPS's revenue.
Confirms one read:Retail sales reported to grow above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales reported to decline below -0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Fed pivot may enhance growth opportunities.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 13, 2026, Eva Boratto, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”) advised the Company that she was resigning from the Board, effective immediately. Ms. Boratto’s decision was made in connection with her appointment to the position of Chief Financial Officer of Cencora, Inc. and her need t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$111.00 – $127.00 (median $116.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GXO GXO Logistics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
UPS aims to achieve a consolidated revenue of approximately $89.7 billion for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $21.2 billion in 2026-Q1, down from $24.5 billion in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $89.7 billion target, with a need for acceleration in subsequent quarters.
“The company reaffirms its consolidated financial targets of revenue of approximately $89.7 billion.”
“UPS expects revenue to be approximately $89.7 billion.”
“For the full year 2026, UPS expects revenue to be approximately $89.7 billion.”
UPS aims for a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6% for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin was 6.0% in 2026-Q1, down from 10.5% in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows a significant gap from the 9.6% target, indicating limited progress.
“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of approximately 9.6% is reaffirmed for 2026.”
UPS plans to allocate approximately $3.0 billion for capital expenditures in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While the $3.0 billion capex plan is consistently reaffirmed, the financials do not provide specific capex figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress.
“Expected capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion are confirmed for 2026.”
Why it matters: Hitting this margin shows good cost management. It helps with overall profit goals.
Confirms:In Q2 2026, the operating margin was at least 9.6%.
Disproves:The operating margin was below 8.5%. This shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows a focus on growth and infrastructure investment.
Confirms:Capital spending was at least $3.0 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Capital spending was below $2.5 billion. This suggests possible cutbacks.
Why it matters: This growth would indicate a recovery in demand and support the revenue target of $89.7 billion.
Confirms:In Q2 2026, total revenues were over $22.3 billion. This shows more than 5% growth from last year.
Disproves:In Q2 2026, total revenues were below $21.2 billion. This means revenue is still going down.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows the company is on track with growth plans. It is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $89.7 billion.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $89.7 billion.
Why it matters: Management expects revenue growth to return in Q2. This will show if their strategy is working.
Confirms:Q2 consolidated revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 consolidated revenue growth is less than or equal to 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Domestic revenue trends indicate demand health. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:U.S. domestic revenue declines more than 3% year over year.
Disproves:U.S. domestic revenue grows year over year.
Advances: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Expansion in Mexico supports revenue growth target.
Advances: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Investment in air freight enhances revenue potential.
Advances: Maintain revenue target of $89.7 billion
Heavy air freight expansion could boost revenue.
Crash incident raises safety concerns.
Lawsuits could impact financial stability.
Potential legal liabilities from crash.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8‑K filed by United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”) on February 6, 2026, Kevin M. Warsh had advised the Company that he would resign from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company if and when he was confirmed by the United States Senate to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareowners (the “Meeting”) of United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”) held on May 7, 2026, the Company’s shareowners approved the United Parcel Service, Inc. 2026 Omnibus Incentive Compensation Plan (the “Plan”). The Plan is a stock and cash-based incentive plan and includes provisions by which the Company may gra…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026 , United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company also posted on its website at www.investors.ups.com financial statement schedules containing additional detail about the Company's results of operations and financial condition for the same period. A copy of the press releas…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 30, 2026, President Donald J. Trump announced his intent to nominate Kevin M. Warsh, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of United Parcel Service, Inc. (the “Company”), to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System, subject to confirmation by the United States Senate. On February…
“Non-GAAP adjusted operating margin to be approximately 9.6%.”
“UPS expects non-GAAP adjusted operating margin to be approximately 9.6%.”
“The company is planning capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion.”
“UPS confirms expected capital expenditures of about $3.0 billion.”