Reading FDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDX free→Reading FDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDX free→NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed, indicating some uncertainty in the company's profitability. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $338.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $339 FDX trades at 17× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $537 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $155–$457. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.39 → $3.92 (-10.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -18.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 15.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$271.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,539.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The spin-off is a key management priority and will shape FedEx's future. It could impact stockholder value and operational focus.
Confirms:FedEx Freight will become a new public company by June 2026.
Disproves:Delays or complications in the spin-off process beyond the June 2026 target.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve $1B in cost reductions
Labor agreement supports cost reduction objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. Director Resignation As previously reported, in connection with the Spin-Off, Stephen E. Gorman resigned from his position as a member of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), as well as his position as a member of the committees thereof, in each case, effective as of immediately prior to the Effective Time to join the Board of Directors of FedEx Freight. In addition, effective as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$155.00 – $457.00 (median $340.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GXO GXO Logistics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
22 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
Implement transformation initiatives to achieve over $1 billion in cost reductions.
Limit capital expenditures to no more than $4.1 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Complete the spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings will show how FedEx is managing costs and demand in a tough market. It will also reflect the impact of the spin-off.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds the revised guidance of $15.15 to $15.75.
Confirms the other:EPS falls below the revised guidance of $15.15 to $15.75.
Why it matters: When key leaders leave, it can change FedEx's plans and how it works.
Confirms:New leaders are appointed and share a clear plan for the future.
Disproves:New leaders may bring uncertainty. This could lead to issues in operations.
Why it matters: Cutting costs by $1 billion is important. It helps make more money during tough times.
Confirms:Management expects to cut at least $500 million in costs by the next earnings call.
Disproves:Reports indicate less than $500 million in cost reductions achieved by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Spending on capital affects future growth and efficiency. Sticking to the budget shows control.
Confirms:FedEx reports capital spending at or below $4.1 billion for FY 2026.
Disproves:FedEx says it will spend over $4.1 billion on capital for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Cutting costs is important for better margins and making more money. Success here shows better operations.
Confirms:Management says they reached big goals for the $1B cost-cutting target.
Disproves:Management says there are delays or less progress than expected on cost cuts.
Why it matters: Cutting costs is important for making more money and helping the spin-off succeed.
Confirms:FedEx is making progress towards the $1B cost cut goal. This shows better efficiency.
Disproves:FedEx has problems reaching the cost cut goal or faces delays in making changes.
Threatens: Achieve $1B in cost reductions
Cost reductions may impact operational efficiency and morale.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Immediately prior to the consummation of the Spin-Off, FedEx Freight was a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. Effective as of 12:01 a.m., Central Time, on June 1, 2026 (the “Effective Time”), the Company completed the Spin-Off through the distribution by FedEx of 80.1% of the outstanding shares of FedEx Freight common stock on a pro rata basis to the holders of FedEx common stock. Each FedEx stockholder received one share of FedEx Freig…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . Election of New Director On June 8, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of FedEx Corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company”) elected Mark A. Edmunds as a director, effective immediately. The Board also appointed Mr. Edmunds as Chair of its Audit and Finance Committee and member of its Cyber and Technology Oversight Committee. A copy of FedEx’s p…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, FedEx Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company”) completed its spin-off of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“FedEx Freight”), into a new, publicly traded company (the “Spin-Off”). FedEx, or subsidiaries thereof, have entered into the following agreements with FedEx Freight, or subsidiaries thereof, in connection with the Spin-Off in order to govern the ongoing relationship between the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 14, 2026, Guy M. Erwin II, Corporate Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of FedEx Corporation (“FedEx” or the “Company”), informed the Company that he is resigning, effective May 31, 2026, to join FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. as Senior Vice President – Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Erwin will continue to serve in his current role with the Company un…