Reading GXO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GXO free→Reading GXO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GXO free→NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If GXO cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 GXO trades at 23× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $65–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.59 (+2.0% / 30d). 9 raised, 4 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 35.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$352.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,060.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would indicate that growth is slowing and may affect future guidance.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth was below 4%.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth was above 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GXO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, GXO Logistics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or othe…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$65.00 – $75.00 (median $68.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GXO GXO Logistics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing commercial efforts, especially in high-margin growth verticals.
Implement a global framework for standardizing and scaling excellence.
Accelerate deployment of AI, automation, and robotics across operations.
Increase guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS for 2026.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: A drop below $230 million would challenge the raised guidance and signal potential issues.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was less than $230 million.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $230 million or more.
Why it matters: Strong new business wins would show that GXO's strategy works.
Confirms:New business wins in Q2 exceed $250 million.
Disproves:New business wins in Q2 fall below $150 million.
Why it matters: A larger pipeline would show strong demand and support future revenue growth.
Confirms:Sales pipeline is above $3 billion.
Disproves:Sales pipeline is below $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: Reaching $40 million in cash from operations would show progress in improving cash flow. This is important for funding growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations reaches $40 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations falls below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If the sector grows again, it could help GXO. This means a stronger market.
Confirms one read:Sector growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Details on long-term strategy can affect investor trust and stock value.
Confirms one read:Investor Day is announced with clear strategic goals.
Confirms the other:Investor Day is delayed or unclear about strategy.
Why it matters: Strong wins in this sector would confirm growth in high-margin areas.
Confirms:New business wins in aerospace & defense exceed $100 million.
Disproves:New business wins in aerospace & defense fall below $50 million.
Why it matters: Exceeding 10% growth would show GXO is on track with its revenue goals. It would signal strong demand and effective strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control and efficiency. This is important for GXO's profits.
Confirms:Operating income is over $50 million in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income is under $30 million in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of GXO Logistics, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the appointment of Mark Suchinski to the position of chief financial officer (principal financial officer) of the Company. The appointment will be effective on April 1, 2026. Mr. Suchinski, 59, most recently served as Senior Vice President and Chi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 10, 2026, GXO Logistics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Excha…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 23, 2026, Paul Blanchett, Chief Accounting Officer of GXO Logistics, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to resign from his position as Chief Accounting Officer, with his last working day being April 24, 2026. Mr. Blanchett resigned to pursue a new professional opportunity outside of the logistics industry, and the…