Reading EXPD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXPD free→Reading EXPD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EXPD free→NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact growth, while risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from EXPD and the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $163.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $163 EXPD trades at 26× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $162 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $140–$175. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.65 (+12.5% / 30d). 11 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -0.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,588.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in ocean container volume shows market problems are still here.
Confirms:Ocean container volume declines more than 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Ocean container volume stays the same or increases each year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Manage unpredictable freight environment
Geopolitical pressures may disrupt supply chain management.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., a Washington corporation, issued a press release announcing first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchan…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $175.00 (median $156.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
GXO GXO Logistics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to adapt to the unpredictable freight environment due to global events and macroeconomic concerns.
Continue the share repurchase program to return value to shareholders.
Focus on maintaining operational profitability through disciplined cost control and strategic investments.
Why it matters: Airfreight tonnage growth shows strong demand. This is important for steady revenue.
Confirms:Q2 2026 airfreight tonnage growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Airfreight tonnage growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program can change investor trust and stock price.
Confirms one read:Management shares news on the $3 billion share buyback program.
Confirms the other:No updates or delays in the share repurchase program are announced.
Regulation FD Disclosure. The following information is included in this document as a result of Expeditors' policy regarding public disclosure of corporate information. SAFE HARBOR FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS UNDER SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995; CERTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS Certain portions of this document contain forward-looking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looki…
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., a Washington corporation, issued a press release announcing a semi-annual cash dividend. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Regulation FD Disclosure. The following information is included in this document as a result of Expeditors' policy regarding public disclosure of corporate information. SAFE HARBOR FOR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS UNDER SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995; CERTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS Certain portions of this document contain forward-looking statements, which are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looki…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., a Washington corporation, issued a press release announcing fourth quarter financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exch…