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Track PAL free→Proficient Auto Logistics, Inc. (PAL)
NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$6.63+3.92%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that PAL's growth potential is uncertain due to weak recent performance. The company has not released enough financial data to assess its trajectory. PAL trades at a low valuation compared to peers, but the exact multiple is unclear. If PAL cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Market cap
- $177.17M
- Employees
- 825
- IPO date
- 2024-04-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.63. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$16.63
Range $12.33 – $20.46
vs price: -60% below
Method agreement : high · 5 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$36.93consensus
Range $36.93 – $36.93
vs price: -82% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$48.84consensus
Range $48.84 – $48.84
vs price: -86% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for PAL right now, so treat our $20 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-67%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$19.75
range $12.90 – $20.01
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 67% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
23.7xEV/EBITDA · peer median 16.0x
Looks more expensive than peers.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2463).
76th pctl · Industrials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -34.1% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.07 (-34.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$239.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$618.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,332.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses. The confidence level changed from low to medium. The signal changed from none to mixed.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for continued earnings misses
Why it matters: Missing earnings may mean bigger problems with the company's money.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows a net income loss greater than $6 million.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows a net income profit or loss less than $6 million.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PAL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in Industrials.
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC meetings
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting PAL and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PAL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PAL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like UPS, FDX, and JBHT start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping PAL and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits PAL and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-072mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Proficient Auto Logistics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the financial results for the Company for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. The full text of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The Company has scheduled a conference call for 5:00 pm Eastern time on May 7, 2026 to discuss its operations and financial results. The Company invites investors t…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.