Expeditors International (EXPD)

NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$195.91-1.37%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Expeditors International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.01 → 8.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effectively manage freight environment and operational risks	A supporting condition in Expeditors International's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain progress score >=70 on managing freight environment.	Intact	Progress score falls below 60 or major operational disruptions occur	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.8B in 2026-Q1 to $3.5B in 2026-Q2 (+26%), with airfreight tonnage up 14% and ocean volumes increasing 7% sequentially in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes the unpredictable freight environment and the need for operational excellence and customer solutions, reflecting delivering progress amid volatility. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain or improve operating income above $295M	Operating income rose from $265.9M to $294.8M in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $265M in next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Operating income grew from $295M in 2026-Q1 to $350M in 2026-Q2 (+18.5%), with operating efficiency reaching 32.2% in 2026-Q2, above the 30% target. Management consistently highlights disciplined cost control and productivity, indicating delivering progress on profitability and efficiency. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually	A primary condition in Expeditors International's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue growth: 32.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202632.069641 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4e77b55b-65cb-4963-9f5c-a6f142cbf85e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.8B in 2026-Q1 to $3.5B in 2026-Q2 (+26%), with airfreight tonnage up 14% and ocean volumes increasing 7% sequentially in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes the unpredictable freight environment and the need for operational excellence and customer solutions, reflecting delivering progress amid volatility. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.13

$7.04 → $8.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.30B

$12.23B → $13.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.04	$12,234,514,563	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$7.04	$12,236,684,918	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$7.04	$12,236,684,918	11 / 10
2026-07-29	$7.04	$12,236,684,918	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$7.04	$12,236,684,918	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-08-01	$7.05	$12,236,684,918	11 / 10
2026-08-02	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-08-03	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$7.05	$12,236,684,918	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-08-06	$7.12	$12,255,520,630	14 / 14
2026-08-07	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$8.07	$13,088,072,740	14 / 15
2026-08-09	$8.07	$13,088,072,740	14 / 15
2026-08-10	$8.07	$13,088,072,740	14 / 15
2026-08-11	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$8.07	$13,088,072,740	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-15	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-16	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-17	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-18	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-19	$7.98	$13,119,899,641	11 / 11
2026-08-20	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-21	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-22	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-23	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-24	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-25	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-26	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-27	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-28	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-29	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-30	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-08-31	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-01	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-02	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-03	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-04	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-05	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-06	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-07	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-08	$7.98	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-09	$8.01	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-10	$8.01	$13,147,376,712	11 / 11
2026-09-11	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-12	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-13	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-14	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-15	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-16	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-17	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-18	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-19	$8.01	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-20	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-21	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-22	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-23	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-24	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-25	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-26	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-27	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-28	$8.02	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-29	$8.05	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-09-30	$8.05	$13,151,817,212	11 / 11
2026-10-01	$8.06	$13,179,496,064	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$8.06	$13,198,429,398	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$8.08	$13,230,384,362	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$8.08	$13,243,133,028	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$8.08	$13,243,133,028	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$8.11	$13,267,838,888	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$8.11	$13,267,838,888	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$8.11	$13,267,838,888	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11
2026-10-10	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11
2026-10-11	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11
2026-10-12	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11
2026-10-13	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11
2026-10-14	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11
2026-10-15	$8.13	$13,300,303,482	12 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	8	6
2026-06-01	2	7	6
2026-07-01	3	8	7
2026-08-01	3	9	6
2026-09-01	3	10	5
2026-10-01	3	10	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 5 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 8 · prior Jul 15

$158.00 → $190.00+20.3%

UBSOct 2 · prior Aug 5

$210.00 → $220.00+4.8%

Robert W. BairdOct 1 · prior Aug 5

$190.00 → $200.00+5.3%

BNP ParibasSep 30

$180.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 29 · prior Aug 5

$160.00 → $165.00+3.1%

$0$121.00$242.00

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effectively manage freight environment and operational risksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain or improve operating income above $295MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annuallyRevenue growth: 32.07%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Expeditors International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on managing a volatile freight environment. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial results and a commitment to shareholder returns.

What's priced into Expeditors International

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with expectations that are slightly misaligned. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to execution quality issues.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given strong recent financial performance and ongoing management focus on operational excellence and technology investments. However, there is a moderate risk due to the unpredictable nature of the freight environment.

What Expeditors International hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX, which can influence overall market sentiment. Additionally, management's ability to navigate the freight environment and execute on their priorities will be crucial.