FedEx (FDX)

NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$293.55-0.67%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FedEx’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return capital to stockholders via dividends and buybacks of about $4.3 billion	The company returns capital to shareholders with $4.3 billion in dividends and buybacks.	Intact	Capital returned falls below $3.5 billion annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently executed share repurchases, including $500 million in 2026-Q2 and $276 million in 2026-Q3. Dividend per share remained stable at $1.45 in Q3 and Q2 2026. The company is delivering on capital return commitments with ongoing repurchases and dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Capital spending capped near $4.1 billion in fiscal 2026	Capital spending is capped near $4.1 billion, showing disciplined investment.	Broken	Capital spending exceeds $4.5 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $1.474B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: <= $4.1 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 20, 20261,474,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management lowered the fiscal 2026 capital spending forecast from $4.5 billion to $4.1 billion, prioritizing network optimization and efficiency. This reflects disciplined capital allocation with a declining trajectory in spending guidance, consistent with the stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS between $16.55 and $17.75 in fiscal 2026	Revenue is expected near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026 with EPS guidance up to $17.75.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $16.0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $6.60 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $16.55 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 20, 20266.6 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026	Revenue is expected near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026 with EPS guidance up to $17.75.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $90 billion in FY26	Revenue: $25.007B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $94.7 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 20, 202625,007,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently affirmed the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026. The spin-off was completed on June 1, 2026, as confirmed by the 2026-Q4 financials and material events. This demonstrates delivery on the stated timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Successful spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026	FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026, unlocking value.	Recovered	Spin-off delayed beyond Q3 2026 or reversed	Spin-off completed (FDXF trading) vs June 2026 target FDXF is trading post-spin-off; JPMorgan initiates coverage on the turnaround; FedEx Freight is now a separate public entity. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently affirmed the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026. The spin-off was completed on June 1, 2026, as confirmed by the 2026-Q4 financials and material events. This demonstrates delivery on the stated timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPSUnavailable

$22.18 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$95.65B

$92.85B → $95.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-07-30	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-02	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$22.18	$92,847,327,830	6 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$94,851,036,699	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$94,811,109,693	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$94,934,434,360	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$94,934,434,360	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$94,934,434,360	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$94,934,434,360	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$94,569,072,849	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$94,630,357,059	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$94,630,357,059	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$94,630,357,059	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$94,630,357,059	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$94,630,357,059	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$94,630,357,059	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$94,630,371,016	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$94,631,739,437	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$94,631,739,437	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$94,737,469,030	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$94,737,469,030	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$94,925,861,777	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$94,925,861,777	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$94,925,861,777	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$95,383,944,960	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$95,383,910,515	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$95,221,831,773	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$95,650,768,730	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	8	2
2026-06-01	19	8	2
2026-07-01	20	6	2
2026-08-01	20	6	2
2026-09-01	20	7	2
2026-10-01	20	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Jun 17

$425.00 → $140.00-67.1%

$0$233.75$467.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return capital to stockholders via dividends and buybacks of about $4.3 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Capital spending capped near $4.1 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
EPS between $16.55 and $17.75 in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FedEx outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on operational improvements. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although management remains volatile.

What's priced into FedEx

The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully reflect the company's recent operational improvements. The current pricing suggests a justified position without significant fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, driven by management's focus on cost reductions and network optimization. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, given the company's history and the high-miss-rate industry context.

What FedEx hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and JBHT, which could influence FedEx's momentum. Additionally, management's ability to achieve its cost reduction goals and maintain operational efficiency will be crucial.