United Parcel Service (UPS)

NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$97.48-0.36%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge United Parcel Service’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.03 → 8.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 19 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Invest about $3.0 billion in capital expenditures	A supporting condition in United Parcel Service's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.0 billion.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall below $2.5 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $693M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.0 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026693,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable leadership and execution	A supporting condition in United Parcel Service's published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures.	Under Pressure	Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters	1 key exec departure (CFO) vs 0 allowed CFO resignation confirmed in June 2026. Q3 news shows operational execution (new hub, TikTok deal) but no new executive departures. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve operating margin of at least 9.6%	The company targets $89.7 billion revenue and 9.6% operating margin in 2026.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 8% in FY26	Operating margin: 4.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 9.6%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20264.072874 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ef6eba63-8756-4747-a32f-37f310094697. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of at least $89.7 billion	A primary condition in United Parcel Service's published investment case. The stated target is >= $89.7 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $85 billion in FY26	Revenue: $22.834B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $89.7 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202622,834,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ef6eba63-8756-4747-a32f-37f310094697. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.02

$7.95 → $8.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$95.04B

$94.16B → $95.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.95	$94,156,107,335	17 / 19
2026-07-25	$7.95	$94,156,107,335	17 / 19
2026-07-26	$8.02	$94,227,528,800	28 / 25
2026-07-27	$7.95	$94,156,107,335	17 / 19
2026-07-28	$8.02	$94,227,528,800	28 / 25
2026-07-29	$7.99	$94,545,055,565	17 / 19
2026-07-30	$8.01	$94,208,191,650	27 / 24
2026-07-31	$8.03	$94,898,357,859	18 / 20
2026-08-01	$8.03	$94,898,357,859	18 / 20
2026-08-02	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-03	$8.07	$94,843,113,640	28 / 25
2026-08-04	$8.07	$94,843,113,640	28 / 25
2026-08-05	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-08	$8.07	$94,985,704,930	28 / 25
2026-08-09	$8.07	$94,985,704,930	28 / 25
2026-08-10	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-12	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-13	$8.08	$94,985,704,930	28 / 25
2026-08-14	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-15	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-16	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-17	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-18	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-19	$8.03	$94,981,182,123	18 / 20
2026-08-20	$8.03	$95,006,810,956	19 / 20
2026-08-21	$8.03	$95,006,810,956	19 / 19
2026-08-22	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-23	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-24	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-25	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-26	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-27	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-28	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-29	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-30	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-08-31	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-09-01	$8.03	$94,996,560,956	19 / 19
2026-09-02	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-03	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-04	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-05	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-06	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-07	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-08	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-09	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-10	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-11	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-12	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-13	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-14	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-15	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-16	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-17	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-18	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-19	$8.03	$94,996,682,123	19 / 19
2026-09-20	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-21	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-22	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-23	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-24	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-25	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-26	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-27	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-28	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-29	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-09-30	$8.02	$94,912,297,251	19 / 19
2026-10-01	$8.03	$94,931,047,251	19 / 19
2026-10-02	$8.03	$94,931,047,251	19 / 19
2026-10-03	$8.03	$94,931,876,209	19 / 19
2026-10-04	$8.02	$94,940,432,161	19 / 19
2026-10-05	$8.02	$94,940,432,161	19 / 19
2026-10-06	$8.02	$94,940,432,161	19 / 19
2026-10-07	$8.02	$94,969,518,173	19 / 19
2026-10-08	$8.02	$95,001,658,872	19 / 19
2026-10-09	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19
2026-10-10	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19
2026-10-11	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19
2026-10-12	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19
2026-10-13	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19
2026-10-14	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19
2026-10-15	$8.02	$95,040,539,098	19 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	13	3
2026-06-01	13	12	3
2026-07-01	14	12	3
2026-08-01	14	12	3
2026-09-01	14	12	3
2026-10-01	14	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 7

$115.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$63.25$126.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Invest about $3.0 billion in capital expendituresCapital expenditures: $693M
Maintain stable leadership and executionPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve operating margin of at least 9.6%Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue of at least $89.7 billionRevenue: $22.834B

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

United Parcel Service outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is cautious, reflecting mixed recent performance and a medium confidence level.

What's priced into United Parcel Service

The valuation suggests that UPS is relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully anticipate future growth. The current pricing reflects a justified valuation without significant fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on raising full-year revenue and achieving profit targets, but recent operating income has shown mixed results. The near-term risk of missing guidance is low, but the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which warrants attention.

What United Parcel Service hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FDX, EXPD, and JBHT, which could influence UPS's momentum. Additionally, any reversal in guidance from UPS would significantly impact credibility and market perception.