Reading UNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNB free→Reading UNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If UNB cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 UNB trades at 9× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -0.5% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$327.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,332.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a significant change in the financial sector's health.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UNB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. At the Union Bankshares, Inc. annual meeting of shareholders held on May 20, 2026, Director Cornelius J. Van Dyke did not stand for re-election and retired from his position as director and Board Chair of Union Bankshares, Inc. and Union Bank as he had reached the mandatory retirement age under the bylaws. At the Union Bankshares, Inc. organization…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UNB Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT | — | fair | elevated |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Continue the regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share as declared by the Board.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The quarterly dividend has been consistently maintained at $0.36 per share from 2025-Q2 to 2026-Q1. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy with no change in the dividend amount, indicating a focus on returning value to shareholders.
“On April 15, 2026 the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share.”
“On January 21, 2026 the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share.”
Focus on sustaining net income growth as evidenced by recent financial performance.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income was $3.0 million for 2026-Q1, following $11.1 million for 2025. This indicates a focus on sustaining growth, with net income showing a positive trajectory over the recent periods.
“Net income was $3.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”
“Consolidated net income was $11.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2025.”
“Net income was $3.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025.”
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This may hurt Union Bankshares' performance.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims drop below 250,000.
and in Exhibits 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, except as shall be expressly provided by specific reference in such filing. On May 7, 2026, Union Bankshares, Inc. (the "Company") distributed its First Quarter 2026 unaudited Report to Shareholders (the "Quarterly Report") presenting information conce…
and in Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, except as shall be expressly provided by specific reference in such filing. On April 17, 2026, Union Bankshares, Inc. corrected a press release, a copy of which is furnished with this Amendment No. 1 to Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1, announcing net income an…
of the Report is furnished, not filed; herewith: Exhibit 99.1 Union Bankshares, Inc. Press Release dated April 15, 2026, announcing a regular quarterly dividend and first quarter ended March 31, 2026 net income and net income per share. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Union Bankshares, Inc. April 15, 2026 /s/ David S. Silverman Davi…
Other Events (a) Declaration of Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend On April 15, 2026 the Board of Directors of Union Bankshares, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share. The dividend is payable on May 7, 2026 to shareholders of record as of April 27, 2026.