Reading FHN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could affect performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 FHN trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 29%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.53 (+0.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 5 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$243.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,651.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Exceeding this threshold would show strong growth and support the goal of increasing EPS to $1.87 for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 net income for common shareholders was over $260 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income for common shareholders was below $250 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FHN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Furnished as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the First Horizon Corporation (“FHN” or "First Horizon") First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release, released today.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FHN First Horizon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 4.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving an EPS of $1.87 for the fiscal year 2026.
Commitment to maintaining a stable dividend per share of $0.15.
Focus on increasing net income through operational improvements.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect money and trust. This is important for First Horizon.
Confirms:The company gets a good ruling or settlement in the lawsuit.
Disproves:The company has a big legal loss or more costs from the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS target of $1.87 shows the company's growth potential. It helps investors gauge future earnings strength.
Confirms:Management confirms that EPS is on track to reach $1.87 for 2026.
Disproves:Management revises EPS guidance down from $1.87 for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS target shows strong growth momentum for First Horizon.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS reported at or above $0.53.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS reported below $0.53.
Why it matters: A drop in deposits may show weaker customer trust. This could affect liquidity.
Confirms:Average deposits were less than $65 billion.
Disproves:Average deposits were more than $65 billion.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may raise worries about capital and financial health.
Confirms:CET1 ratio reported below 10.5%.
Disproves:CET1 ratio reported above 10.7%.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show worse credit quality. This could hurt profits.
Confirms:Net charge-offs were more than $30 million.
Disproves:Net charge-offs were less than $30 million.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may show bigger money problems for First Horizon.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 12%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 12%.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean higher credit risk and lower future earnings.
Confirms:Nonperforming loans were over $610 million in Q2.
Disproves:Nonperforming loans were below $600 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable net interest income shows strong management of interest rates. It also shows good loan profits.
Confirms:Net interest income reported above $670 million in Q2.
Disproves:Net interest income reported below $650 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Current legal cases can change financial health and investor trust. It's important to keep track.
Confirms:Recent updates show the legal case ended well for First Horizon.
Disproves:Recent updates show bad results or more risk from the legal case.
Why it matters: Increasing net income shows the company's ability to grow profits. It is key for long-term success.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows net income growth compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows a decline in net income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good money management. It also shows strong finances. This gives investors confidence.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend will remain at $0.15 per share.
Disproves:Management cuts the dividend below $0.15 per share.
Regulation FD Disclosure. Furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is a copy of the Investor Slide Presentation for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, released today. Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 are furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and Item 7.01, “Regulation FD Disclosure,” respectively. The exhibits speak as of the date thereof, and FHN does not assume any obligation to update in the future the information therein. Use of Non-GAAP Measures and Regulatory Measures t…
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The ability of First Horizon Corporation (the “Company”) to declare or pay dividends on, or purchase, redeem or otherwise acquire, shares of its common stock is subject to certain restrictions in the event that the Company does not declare and pay (or set aside) dividends on its Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series H, liquidation preference $100,000 per share (the “Series H Preferred Stock”). The terms of the Series H Preferred…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Furnished as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the First Horizon Corporation (“FHN” or "First Horizon") Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release, released today.
Regulation FD Disclosure. Furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is a copy of the Investor Slide Presentation for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, released today. Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 are furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and Item 7.01, “Regulation FD Disclosure,” respectively. The exhibits speak as of the date thereof, and FHN does not assume any obligation to update in the future the information therein. Use of Non-GAAP Measures and Regulatory Measur…