First Horizon (FHN)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.44-0.42%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Horizon’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.31 → 2.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	896.62M
EPS	—	0.54
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	894.05M
EPS	—	0.544
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.53B
EPS	—	2.142
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.71B
EPS	—	2.32

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share maintained at $0.15	The bank maintains a stable dividend of $0.15 per share.	Intact	dividend falls below $0.15 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.15 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c56d655b-11ec-4eb2-a779-3702e666d758. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches $1.87 in 2026	A primary condition in First Horizon's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.87 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.54 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.87 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.54 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c56d655b-11ec-4eb2-a779-3702e666d758. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income increases from $262 million	Net income rose to $262 million in Q1 2026, showing operational strength.	Intact	net income falls below $230 million next 4 quarters	Net income: $270M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $262 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026270,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c56d655b-11ec-4eb2-a779-3702e666d758. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
P/E ratio near peer median ~12	Its valuation is reasonable with a P/E near peers and moderate risk.	Intact	P/E falls below 10 or rises above 16	P/E (TTM): 11.06x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202611.0566 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: FHN:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.32

$2.31 → $2.32 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.71B

$3.70B → $3.71B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-07-25	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-07-26	$2.30	$3,696,452,613	13 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-07-28	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-07-29	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-07-30	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-07-31	$2.30	$3,696,452,613	13 / 9
2026-08-01	$2.30	$3,696,452,613	13 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-08-03	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-08-04	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-08-05	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-08-06	$2.31	$3,696,261,520	16 / 12
2026-08-07	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.31	$3,697,086,520	16 / 12
2026-08-09	$2.31	$3,697,086,520	16 / 12
2026-08-10	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-11	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.30	$3,697,048,401	13 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.30	$3,697,510,568	13 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.30	$3,702,326,093	13 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-11	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-12	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-13	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-14	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-15	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-16	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-17	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-18	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-19	$2.30	$3,702,973,152	14 / 10
2026-09-20	$2.30	$3,700,174,643	15 / 10
2026-09-21	$2.30	$3,700,174,643	15 / 10
2026-09-22	$2.30	$3,704,077,740	15 / 10
2026-09-23	$2.31	$3,709,980,795	15 / 10
2026-09-24	$2.31	$3,709,980,795	15 / 10
2026-09-25	$2.31	$3,709,980,795	15 / 10
2026-09-26	$2.31	$3,710,001,206	15 / 10
2026-09-27	$2.31	$3,710,001,206	15 / 11
2026-09-28	$2.31	$3,710,001,206	15 / 11
2026-09-29	$2.31	$3,710,521,348	15 / 11
2026-09-30	$2.31	$3,710,521,348	15 / 11
2026-10-01	$2.31	$3,708,962,460	15 / 11
2026-10-02	$2.31	$3,706,522,473	15 / 11
2026-10-03	$2.31	$3,706,522,473	15 / 11
2026-10-04	$2.31	$3,706,522,473	15 / 11
2026-10-05	$2.31	$3,706,522,473	15 / 11
2026-10-06	$2.31	$3,708,681,615	15 / 11
2026-10-07	$2.31	$3,708,681,615	15 / 11
2026-10-08	$2.31	$3,708,681,615	15 / 11
2026-10-09	$2.31	$3,709,942,726	15 / 11
2026-10-10	$2.31	$3,709,942,726	15 / 11
2026-10-11	$2.31	$3,709,448,282	15 / 11
2026-10-12	$2.31	$3,709,448,282	15 / 11
2026-10-13	$2.31	$3,709,448,282	15 / 11
2026-10-14	$2.31	$3,709,448,282	15 / 11
2026-10-15	$2.31	$3,709,459,393	15 / 11
2026-10-16	$2.32	$3,703,351,048	15 / 10
2026-10-17	$2.32	$3,703,351,048	15 / 10
2026-10-18	$2.32	$3,704,118,292	15 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.32	$3,704,118,292	15 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.32	$3,705,146,070	15 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.32	$3,705,146,070	15 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.32	$3,705,146,070	15 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.32	$3,705,146,070	15 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.32	$3,705,146,070	15 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	11
2026-06-01	8	11
2026-07-01	8	11
2026-08-01	8	11
2026-09-01	8	13
2026-10-01	8	13

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 16 · prior Jul 1

$28.00 → $27.00-3.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Sep 8

$30.00 → $31.00+3.3%

Truist FinancialOct 9

$25.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 1 · prior Jul 6

$27.00 → $25.00-7.4%

$0$17.05$34.10

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share maintained at $0.15Dividend per share: $0.17 per share
EPS reaches $1.87 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.54 per share
Net income increases from $262 millionNet income: $270M
P/E ratio near peer median ~12P/E (TTM): 11.06x

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Horizon outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FHN is a bank with a multi-year thesis tied to client relationships, loan growth, and expense discipline. The thesis is currently intact, though recent progress is mixed and the company’s quality score has fallen sharply.

What's priced into First Horizon

The valuation evidence describes FHN as cheap versus peers, with expectations slightly below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, so the snapshot does not point to an unusually fragile setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong relative to the industry, and the latest earnings were in line after a prior-quarter beat. Deposit growth and lower adjusted expenses show progress, but average loan balances fell from the prior quarter and credit measures were mixed. Guidance cuts and rate cuts are risks, while a recent litigation filing adds uncertainty.

What First Horizon hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether client relationships translate into steadier loan growth while expense discipline continues. Credit trends also matter, as nonperforming loans declined but net charge-offs rose in 3Q26. Broader financial-sector momentum could help if sector peers continue to report strong results, while lower rates or reduced guidance would weigh on the setup.