Reading KEY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEY free→Reading KEY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEY free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the industry. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts on the next call, as that could negatively impact estimates and the stock. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 KEY trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $19–$27. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 45%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.43 (+0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$220.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,775.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial loans shows healthy demand. This can increase overall revenue.
Confirms:Commercial loan growth exceeds 5% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Disproves:If commercial loan growth is below 5% year-over-year, it may be a concern.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
High provisions could hurt earnings.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “Board” or “Board of Directors”) of KeyCorp (“KeyCorp” or the “Company”) previously approved, subject to shareholder approval, the KeyCorp 2026 Equity Compensation Plan (the “2026 Plan”). As described below under Item 5.07, KeyCorp shareholders approved the 2026 Plan at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annua…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$19.00 – $27.00 (median $24.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KEY KeyCorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering strong organic revenue and earnings growth throughout 2026.
Aim to reach a return on tangible common equity of over 15% by the end of 2027.
Continue to return capital to shareholders through a structured share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Earnings growth below this level may show problems in reaching revenue goals.
Confirms:Q2 earnings growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If noninterest income drops, it shows weakness in KeyCorp's fee-based businesses. These are important for growth.
Confirms:Q2 noninterest income down year over year worse than 10%.
Disproves:Noninterest income grows year over year or declines less than 10%.
Why it matters: The net interest income benefit shows that growth can happen.
Confirms:Expect about $1 billion in net interest income by Q1 2025.
Disproves:No confirmation or a cut in the net interest income benefit.
Why it matters: Details about the buyback may show that management believes in future earnings. It also shows their plans for capital.
Confirms:Watch for news about the $3.0 billion share buyback. Look for details on timelines or amounts.
Disproves:No further details released on the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A lower CET1 ratio shows possible capital problems. It may also lead to regulatory pressure.
Confirms:CET1 ratio falls below 11%.
Disproves:CET1 ratio remains above 11% or improves.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs mean worse credit quality. This can hurt earnings growth.
Confirms:Net charge-offs to average loans exceed 35 bps in any quarter.
Disproves:Net charge-offs remain at or below 25 bps.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, loan pricing power may weaken. Profitability could also drop.
Confirms:Net interest margin falls below 2.80% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net interest margin remains at or above 2.80%.
Threatens: Achieve 15%+ return on tangible common equity by 2027
Lost deposits could impact earnings and ROE.
Threatens: Achieve 15%+ return on tangible common equity by 2027
Lost deposits could impact earnings and ROE.
Threatens: Achieve 15%+ return on tangible common equity by 2027
Negative outlook could impact ROE target.
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, KeyCorp announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program pursuant to which the Company may purchase up to $3.0 billion of KeyCorp common shares. A copy of the press release announcing the share repurchase program is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements From time to time, the Company has made or will make forward-looking statements within the me…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 16, 2026, KeyCorp issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three-month periods ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”), and posted on its website its first quarter 2026 Supplemental Information Package (the “Supplemental Information Package”). The Press Release and Supplemental Information Package are being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. The information in the preceding paragraph, as…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, Amy G. Brady informed KeyCorp (the “Company”) of her intention to resign from her position as Chief Information Officer due to personal health considerations, effective March 2, 2026. In connection with her resignation, the Company and Ms. Brady entered into a transition letter (the “Transition Letter”), pursuant to which Ms.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On January 15, 2026, each of Ruth Ann Gillis and Carlton Highsmith, directors of KeyCorp, informed the Board of Directors (the "Board") that they will retire from the Board effective upon the expiration of their current terms at KeyCorp's 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the "Annual Meeting"). On January 20, 2026, KeyCorp announced that the Bo…