Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
KeyCorp (KEY)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-15
$19.99+0.25%
Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-15
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.15 → 2.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
View Living FV report and workflowThree key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return on tangible common equity exceeds 13% in Q1 2026 and moves toward 15% by 2027 | Profit on equity rose to 13%, moving toward a 15% goal. | Intact | ROTE fails to progress above 13% in 2026 or falls below 11% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a cautious view on a financial institution facing moderate risks and mixed performance. The current thesis state reflects a watchful approach due to recent weak financial results compared to peers.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that while execution quality is weak, it is not overly expensive. There is an expectations gap indicating that the stock is viewed as cheap compared to its peers.
Management has prioritized revenue and earnings growth, showing some progress with recent financial results. However, the overall performance remains weak, and there is a moderate risk of missing future expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet growth targets and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could significantly impact the financial sector's performance.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, KEY's performance will depend on both internal execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Return on tangible common equity improved from 11.09% in 2025-Q2 to 12.89% in 2026-Q2, showing progress toward the 15%+ target by 2027. Management consistently reaffirmed this goal and the financials show delivering steady improvement.
Revenue grows at least 7.5 billion USD in 2026 | A primary condition in KeyCorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $7.5 billion in 2026 | Revenue: $1.964B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261,964,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0da175b9-da16-473a-a717-87028bdbd284. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $1.84B in 2025-Q2 to $1.96B in 2026-Q2 (+7%), with net income increasing from $425M to $509M. Management consistently emphasized organic growth investments and capability building, and the financials show delivering growth aligned with this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Return capital via share repurchases of at least $389 million per quarter | The bank returns capital by buying back $389 million in shares. | Intact | Quarterly share repurchases fall below $300 million consistently | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in all 6 quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Share repurchases were $389M in 2026-Q1 and $341M in 2026-Q2, demonstrating active capital return. Management consistently emphasized repurchases as a priority, and the financials confirm ongoing execution. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.15 → $2.16 · observed estimates
$8.60B → $8.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.15 | $8,602,875,144 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.15 | $8,602,765,157 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.15 | $8,602,765,157 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.15 | $8,602,765,157 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.15 | $8,602,009,392 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.15 | $8,602,009,392 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.14 | $8,606,050,440 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.14 | $8,606,050,440 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.14 | $8,606,050,440 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.14 | $8,602,649,460 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.15 | $8,599,067,658 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.15 | $8,597,820,250 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.15 | $8,597,223,023 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.15 | $8,614,333,943 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.15 | $8,614,333,943 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.15 | $8,614,652,543 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.15 | $8,614,796,312 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.15 | $8,616,196,312 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.14 | $8,619,149,646 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.14 | $8,622,019,965 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.14 | $8,622,019,965 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.14 | $8,622,019,965 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.15 | $8,625,207,328 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.15 | $8,630,873,994 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.15 | $8,638,499,659 | 14 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.16 | $8,642,655,931 | 14 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.