Reading UMBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UMBF free→Reading UMBF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $134 UMBF trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $137 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $140–$170. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 50%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.09 → $3.09 (-0.2% / 30d). 11 raised, 1 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$231.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,857.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, rising to a "full" label from "fair." The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, while recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows strong demand. It also shows effective lending practices.
Confirms:Average loans increase by more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Average loans increase by less than 5% year over year in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UMBF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, UMB Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and the information is hereby incorporated by reference herein. The Company does not incorporate by reference information presented at any website referenced in the press release. The Company is furnishing a copy of material…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $170.00 (median $152.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UMBF UMB Financial Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Implement a share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
Why it matters: CPI affects interest rates. It also impacts how much consumers spend. This matters for UMB's business.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a significant increase over the previous month.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease or no change from the previous month.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows strong loan demand. It also shows good management.
Confirms:Q2 net interest income increases year over year by more than 30%.
Disproves:Q2 net interest income growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: If operating income is stable or falling, it may show cost problems. This worries investors.
Confirms:Operating income grew more than 20% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income grew less than 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key focus. A drop below 13% may signal trouble.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 13% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays at or above 13% year over year.
Why it matters: The buyback could improve earnings per share and boost shareholder value. Its effectiveness will be key.
Confirms:Positive impact on earnings per share reported in Q3 results.
Disproves:No significant change in earnings per share reported in Q3 results.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show management's trust in the company's value.
Confirms:They announced more share repurchases beyond the current two million shares.
Disproves:No updates or a reduction in the share buyback program.
Other Events On April 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Board of Directors of the Company had declared a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share that is payable on July 1, 2026 to stockholders of record of the Company's common stock as of the close of business on June 10, 2026. The Board of Directors of the Company also declared a dividend of $193.75 per share of the Company's Series B 7.750% preferred stock, which results in a dividend of $0.484375 per depositary shar…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 9, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of UMB Financial Corporation (the “Company”) approved the entry by the Company into a Change in Control Agreement (each, a “CIC Agreement”) with each of the Company’s named executive officers, which provides for severance protections in the event of a qualify…