UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$135.51-0.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge UMB Financial Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.98 → 13.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	758.94M
EPS	—	3.282
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.01B
EPS	—	13.261
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.17B
EPS	—	13.956

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income rises from $236.6M to at least $331.3M	A primary condition in UMB Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $331.3M.	Intact	operating income falls below $236.6M in any quarter through 2026-Q1	Operating income: $350.397M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $331.3M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026350,397,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows from $738M to at least $867M	A primary condition in UMB Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $867M.	Intact	revenue falls below $738M in any quarter through 2026-Q1	Revenue: $871.366M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $867M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026871,366,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5627cc78-3704-4011-a7df-5dd7a1d935ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share buyback program continues to enhance shareholder value	Share buybacks add value for shareholders.	Intact	no buyback announcements or buyback program halted in next 4 quarters	Buyback activity confirmed (Apr 2026) vs target of continued activity April 28, 2026 press release announced share buyback and dividend, confirming continued capital allocation activity. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.96

$13.77 → $13.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.17B

$3.14B → $3.17B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.77	$3,140,921,910	13 / 9
2026-07-25	$13.77	$3,140,921,910	13 / 9
2026-07-26	$13.77	$3,151,035,586	10 / 7
2026-07-27	$13.77	$3,140,921,910	13 / 9
2026-07-28	$13.77	$3,140,921,910	13 / 9
2026-07-29	$13.72	$3,140,921,910	12 / 9
2026-07-30	$13.79	$3,156,927,722	9 / 7
2026-07-31	$13.88	$3,157,539,270	13 / 9
2026-08-01	$13.87	$3,165,991,216	9 / 7
2026-08-02	$13.90	$3,157,539,270	13 / 9
2026-08-03	$13.90	$3,157,539,270	13 / 9
2026-08-04	$13.91	$3,165,991,216	10 / 7
2026-08-05	$13.91	$3,158,872,600	13 / 9
2026-08-06	$13.91	$3,165,991,216	10 / 7
2026-08-08	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-09	$13.91	$3,158,872,600	13 / 9
2026-08-10	$13.91	$3,158,872,600	13 / 9
2026-08-12	$13.95	$3,169,116,380	13 / 9
2026-08-13	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-14	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-15	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-16	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-17	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-18	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-19	$13.93	$3,167,199,114	10 / 7
2026-08-20	$13.97	$3,176,404,743	10 / 7
2026-08-21	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-22	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-23	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-24	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-25	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-26	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-27	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-28	$13.95	$3,166,277,039	10 / 7
2026-08-29	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	11 / 8
2026-08-30	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	11 / 8
2026-08-31	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	11 / 8
2026-09-01	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	11 / 8
2026-09-02	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	11 / 8
2026-09-03	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	12 / 9
2026-09-04	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	12 / 9
2026-09-05	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	12 / 9
2026-09-06	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	12 / 9
2026-09-07	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	12 / 9
2026-09-08	$13.95	$3,169,053,953	12 / 9
2026-09-09	$13.96	$3,170,353,387	12 / 9
2026-09-10	$13.96	$3,170,353,387	12 / 9
2026-09-11	$13.96	$3,170,353,387	12 / 9
2026-09-12	$13.96	$3,170,353,387	12 / 9
2026-09-13	$13.96	$3,170,353,387	12 / 9
2026-09-14	$13.96	$3,170,353,387	12 / 9
2026-09-15	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-16	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-17	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-18	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-19	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-20	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-21	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-22	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-23	$13.96	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-24	$13.98	$3,170,787,970	12 / 9
2026-09-25	$13.98	$3,170,787,970	13 / 9
2026-09-26	$13.98	$3,170,787,970	13 / 10
2026-09-27	$13.98	$3,170,787,970	13 / 10
2026-09-28	$13.98	$3,170,787,970	13 / 10
2026-09-29	$13.97	$3,169,710,315	13 / 10
2026-09-30	$13.97	$3,169,710,315	13 / 10
2026-10-01	$13.97	$3,169,671,854	13 / 10
2026-10-02	$13.97	$3,169,671,854	13 / 10
2026-10-03	$13.97	$3,168,837,042	13 / 10
2026-10-04	$13.97	$3,168,837,042	13 / 10
2026-10-05	$13.97	$3,168,837,042	13 / 10
2026-10-06	$13.97	$3,168,837,042	13 / 10
2026-10-07	$13.97	$3,167,027,323	13 / 10
2026-10-08	$13.94	$3,167,027,323	13 / 10
2026-10-09	$13.94	$3,166,319,630	13 / 10
2026-10-10	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	13 / 10
2026-10-11	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	13 / 10
2026-10-12	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	13 / 10
2026-10-13	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	13 / 10
2026-10-14	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	13 / 10
2026-10-15	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	12 / 10
2026-10-16	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	12 / 10
2026-10-17	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	12 / 10
2026-10-18	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	12 / 10
2026-10-19	$13.95	$3,168,950,400	12 / 10
2026-10-20	$13.96	$3,173,009,338	12 / 10
2026-10-21	$13.96	$3,173,027,323	12 / 10
2026-10-22	$13.96	$3,167,279,600	12 / 10
2026-10-23	$13.96	$3,167,279,600	12 / 10
2026-10-24	$13.96	$3,167,279,600	12 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	3
2026-07-01	11	2
2026-08-01	13	2
2026-09-01	13	3
2026-10-01	13	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Jul 30

$170.00 → $168.00-1.2%

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Aug 10

$160.00 → $147.00-8.1%

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Sep 8

$190.00 → $182.00-4.2%

$0$104.50$209.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income rises from $236.6M to at least $331.3MOperating income: $350.397M
Revenue grows from $738M to at least $867MRevenue: $871.366M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

UMB Financial Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

UMBF looks like a financially strong bank with a durable operating base, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its thesis is intact, with recent results holding in the top half of its industry, though management execution is assessed as neutral overall.

What's priced into UMB Financial Corp.

Valuation is tagged as cheap, but UMBF trades at a 1.06 premium versus peers, so the relative picture is mixed. Expectations are modestly below the model’s view, and pricing is considered justified with low fragility, meaning there is no strong evidence that expectations are stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results point to continued operating progress: loan growth and asset quality improved, operating income rose, efficiency improved, and fee income increased. The next guidance update is a key risk, while falling rates could weigh on banks; the reported chance of a near-term miss is low, but peers have recently missed and UMBF has a deep miss in its history.

What UMB Financial Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on UMBF sustaining loan growth and asset quality while continuing to improve efficiency and fee income. Near-term guidance cuts or rate reductions would weaken the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.