Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT (UNB)

Q: What's priced into Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT (UNB) stock?

UNB is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the valuation driver is aligned. The evidence says priced-in fragility is low, so weak execution appears recognized without the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions being reflected.

Q: What does the Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT (UNB) outlook hinge on?

The near-term downside case strengthens if UNB cuts guidance or if the Fed begins cutting rates, which the evidence identifies as a headwind for financial stocks. Sector momentum could provide support if HDB, IBN, and USB continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance, but the supplied evidence does not establish how much that would affect UNB specifically.

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.04+0.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	99.57M
EPS	—	2.63
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	113.57M
EPS	—	3.2

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share	Union Bankshares keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.36 per share.	Intact	quarterly dividend falls below $0.36 per share	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 0 supplied transcript fiscal periods. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share on October 21, 2026. The supplied information confirms the declaration, but does not establish a multi-quarter transcript record for this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain net income growth	Net income shows growth with $3.0 million in Q1 2026 and $11.1 million in 2025.	Intact	annual net income falls below $11 million	Net income: $2.924M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $11 million annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20262,924,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02fb193c-6bb3-46ea-a609-47d32d9e34ab. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 0 supplied transcript fiscal periods. Net income was $3.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2026, compared to $3.4 million for the same period in 2025. Earnings growth is evident in this quarter's reported results, though the supplied transcripts do not provide fiscal-period labels to count recurrence. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue growth near 13% next year	Analysts expect 13% revenue growth next year.	Broken	revenue growth falls below 10% YoY	Revenue growth: 7.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20267.136371 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02fb193c-6bb3-46ea-a609-47d32d9e34ab. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 0 supplied transcript fiscal periods. Net income was $3.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2026, compared to $3.4 million for the same period in 2025. Earnings growth is evident in this quarter's reported results, though the supplied transcripts do not provide fiscal-period labels to count recurrence. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation below peer median P/E	A supporting condition in Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT's published investment case. The stated target is P/E <= 11.98.	Intact	P/E rises above 12	P/E (TTM): 8.76x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20268.7605 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: UNB:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.36 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain net income growthNet income: $2.924M
Achieve revenue growth near 13% next yearPublished status: Broken
Maintain valuation below peer median P/EP/E (TTM): 8.76x

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a small-cap financial business with a watch-state long-term thesis, not a clear turnaround or durable-growth story. Confidence is low, recent performance is below its industry cohort, and execution quality is weak, though the thesis has not freshly broken.

What's priced into Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT

UNB is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and the valuation driver is aligned. The evidence says priced-in fragility is low, so weak execution appears recognized without the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions being reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reported quarterly net income rose to $3.8 million from $3.4 million a year earlier, and the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share. However, the dividend record across multiple quarters is not established, leadership-transition execution is not quantified, and consecutive earnings misses raise the risk around the next report.

What Union Bankshares Inc/Morrisville VT hinges on