Reading TPCS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPCS free→Reading TPCS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TPCS free→NASDAQIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TPCS trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.55 TPCS trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $5.97 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$172.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$523.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,009.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help TechPrecision do better.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, which helps the overall market.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down, showing ongoing challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TPCS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2021, Ranor, Inc. (“ Ranor ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TechPrecision Corporation (the “ Company ”), along with certain affiliates of the Company (together with Ranor, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into that certain Amended and Restated Loan Agreement (as amended from time to time, the “ Amended and Restated Loan Agreement ”) with Beacon Bank & Trust, successor by merger to Berkshire Bank (“ Beacon ”) under wh…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TPCS TechPrecision Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering backlog with expectations for gross margin improvement over the next one to three fiscal years.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite management's focus on improving gross margins, gross profit decreased from $2,458,000 in 2026-Q2 to $381,000 in 2026-Q3. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“we expect to deliver this backlog over the next one to three fiscal years with expectations for gross margin improvement throughout the period.”
“we expect to deliver this backlog over the next one to three fiscal years with expectations for gross margin improvement throughout the period.”
“We expect to deliver this backlog over the next one to three fiscal years with expectations for gross margin expansion throughout the period.”
Commitment to deliver the existing backlog over the next one to three fiscal years.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue decreased from $9,086,000 in 2026-Q2 to $7,094,000 in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in backlog delivery. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“we expect to deliver this backlog over the next one to three fiscal years with expectations for gross margin improvement throughout the period.”
of Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2021, Ranor, Inc. (“ Ranor ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TechPrecision Corporation (the “ Company ”), along with certain affiliates of the Company (together with Ranor, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into that certain Amended and Restated Loan Agreement (as amended from time to time, the “ Amended and Restated Loan Agreement ”) with Berkshire Bank under which, among other things, Berkshire Bank provided a revolv…
of Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement As previously disclosed, on August 25, 2021, Ranor, Inc. (“ Ranor ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TechPrecision Corporation (the “ Company ”), along with certain affiliates of the Company (together with Ranor, the “ Borrowers ”), entered into that certain Amended and Restated Loan Agreement (as amended from time to time, the “ Amended and Restated Loan Agreement ”) with Berkshire Bank under which, among other things, Berkshire Bank provided a revolv…
“we expect to deliver this backlog over the next one to three fiscal years with expectations for gross margin improvement throughout the period.”
“We expect to deliver this backlog over the next one to three fiscal years with expectations for gross margin expansion throughout the period.”