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TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$75.82+0.45%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. However, earnings quality is neutral, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from TMDX and the performance of sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Market cap
- $2.52B
- Employees
- 898
- IPO date
- 2019-04-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $75.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$48.79consensus
Range $42.38 – $91.42
vs price: +55% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$181.42consensus
Range $122.10 – $308.13
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $75 the market pays 39× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 46× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $49 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $75–$142. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
39.1x
peer 23.0x · own history 46.2x
Premium
1.7x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
55%
our forecast 58%
Our fair value
$48.72
range $46.49 – $90.92
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 55% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 58%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
83rd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
42nd pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -9.8% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.61 → $0.55 (-9.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -36.2% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$578.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,876.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to meet or exceed 20%
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth rate shows strong demand for TransMedics' products. It would signal continued momentum in their business strategy.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 total revenue growth of 20% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 total revenue growth below 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TMDX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, TransMedics Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.