TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$70.74-1.83%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TransMedics Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.28 → 2.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	201.18M
EPS	—	0.474
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	743.64M
EPS	—	1.466
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	874.66M
EPS	—	2.261

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit improves to at least $101M in 2026-Q1	Gross profit improved from $88M to $101M in one year.	Improving	Gross profit falls below $88M in 2026-Q1	Gross profit: $113.198M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $101M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 2026113,198,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1d57670a-4be3-4a15-8f8b-d0c52806abf7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin declined slightly from 61% in 2025-Q2 to 60% in 2026-Q2, impacted by higher service revenue mix and temporary product-cost factors, partially offset by improved logistics efficiency. The trajectory shows mixed progress with margin pressure from investments and cost factors. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash flow from operations improves to at least $24.5M in 2026-Q1	Cash flow from operations turned positive, rising to $24.5M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Operating cash flow falls below $0 in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $17.309M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $24.5M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202617,309,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $24.5M in 2026-Q1, and cash balance increased from $461.7M in 2026-Q1 to $472.7M in 2026-Q2. Management shows progress in enhancing cash flow and maintaining strong liquidity. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $742M in FY26	TransMedics grows revenue about 23% yearly, reaching ~$742M in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $727M in FY26	Revenue: $189.948M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$742M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026189,948,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1d57670a-4be3-4a15-8f8b-d0c52806abf7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew 21% year-over-year from $157.4M in 2025-Q2 to $189.9M in 2026-Q2. Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $737M-$757M, representing 22%-25% growth. Management is delivering on revenue growth through increased OCS utilization and expanded logistics services. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.26

$2.77 → $2.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.87B

$0.87B → $0.87B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.77	$867,799,380	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$2.86	$867,799,380	9 / 11
2026-07-26	$2.86	$867,799,380	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$2.86	$867,799,380	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$2.86	$867,799,380	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$3.08	$867,845,909	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.86	$867,799,380	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$3.08	$867,845,909	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$3.08	$867,845,909	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.87	$867,077,300	10 / 12
2026-08-03	$3.07	$867,119,953	8 / 9
2026-08-04	$2.87	$867,077,300	10 / 12
2026-08-05	$2.87	$867,077,300	10 / 12
2026-08-06	$3.07	$867,119,953	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$2.37	$874,396,320	10 / 12
2026-08-10	$2.37	$874,396,320	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.38	$874,406,912	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.32	$874,749,495	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.32	$874,749,495	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.32	$874,749,495	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.30	$874,752,495	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.30	$874,754,245	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$2.30	$874,751,245	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$2.30	$874,745,137	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.28	$874,413,995	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.28	$874,417,545	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.28	$874,417,545	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.28	$874,417,545	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.27	$874,417,545	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.26	$874,417,545	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.26	$874,417,545	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.26	$874,709,212	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.26	$874,709,212	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.26	$874,709,212	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.26	$874,709,212	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.26	$874,659,212	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	8	3
2026-07-01	8	4
2026-08-01	8	4
2026-09-01	8	4
2026-10-01	9	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Canaccord GenuityOct 13 · prior Aug 5

$95.00 → $94.00-1.1%

BarclaysOct 6

$120.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$66.00$132.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit improves to at least $101M in 2026-Q1Gross profit: $113.198M
Cash flow from operations improves to at least $24.5M in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $17.309M
Revenue grows to about $742M in FY26Revenue: $189.948M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-58.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TransMedics Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a steady, low-risk compounder. The multi-year view is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and near-term risk is elevated.

What's priced into TransMedics Group, Inc.

TMDX is valued at a sizable premium to peers, while the evidence describes its pricing as justified rather than showing a full stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so expectations appear somewhat ahead of the underlying evidence, with medium confidence in that reading.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been strong: second-quarter revenue rose 21% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to reflect 22% to 25% growth. Cash flow and liquidity show progress, but gross margin edged lower, and recent earnings misses raise the risk of another miss. Over the multi-year view, execution on increased OCS use and expanded logistics services supports growth, while margins remain a key test.

What TransMedics Group, Inc. hinges on

The unfavorable case centers on another guidance cut after the recent raise, which could damage management credibility, or a weakening jobs trend that raises recession concerns. The favorable case depends partly on continued strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers, which could support sector momentum. Internally, the thesis also hinges on sustaining revenue growth while improving margins and avoiding further earnings misses.