Reading THR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THR free→Reading THR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track THR free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and its capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact THR compared to sector peers, where it trades at a typical level. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $61.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 THR trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median. Our $53 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.39 → $0.37 (-5.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$362.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,724.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector improves, it could benefit Thermon. A stronger sector may lead to better sales and margins.
Confirms:The sector regime score turns positive, indicating a shift to growth.
Disproves:The sector score is still negative. This shows ongoing challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for THR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by reference. On June 1, 2026, in connection with the consummation of the Mergers, the Company notified the NYSE that the certificates of merger were filed with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware, in each case, to effect the Mergers. The Company requested that the NYSE file with the SEC a Notification of Removal from Listing and/or Registration under Section 12(b) of the Exchange Act, on Form 25 in order to initiate the delisting of Thermon Common Stock from the NYSE and the dere…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
THR Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | full | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the full-year Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $516 to $526 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased from $114.648M in 2025-Q2 to $148.332M in 2026-Q4, reflecting management's raised guidance. The trajectory shows delivering on the increased revenue guidance.
“We are increasing our full-year Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $516 to $526 million.”
“We now expect full-year Fiscal 2026 revenue of approximately $506 to $527 million.”
Management has raised the GAAP EPS guidance for Fiscal 2026 to $1.64 to $1.78 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS increased from $0.28 in 2025-Q2 to $0.55 in 2026-Q3, aligning with the raised GAAP EPS guidance. The trajectory indicates delivering on the EPS guidance.
“We are also raising our GAAP EPS guidance to approximately $1.64 to $1.78 per share.”
The company completed mergers and initiated delisting from the NYSE as part of its strategic direction.
Newly stated in 2026-Q4. The company completed mergers and initiated delisting from the NYSE, marking a significant strategic shift. This priority was newly stated and executed within the quarter.
“The Company consummated the Mergers and requested delisting from the NYSE.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery in the industrial sector. This would improve investor confidence in Thermon.
Confirms:Thermon reports revenue growth above 5% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 5% year over year in the next earnings report.
by reference. On June 1, 2026, pursuant to the Merger Agreement, (i) Merger Sub Inc. merged with and into the Company, with the Company continuing as a wholly-owned subsidiary of CECO and the surviving corporation of the merger and (ii) the Company, as the surviving corporation of the First Merger, merged with and into Merger Sub LLC, with Merger Sub LLC being the surviving entity of the merger.
Agreement and Plan of Merger On the Closing Date, the Company consummated the Mergers. The Mergers are intended to qualify for U.S. federal income tax purposes as a “reorganization” within the meaning of Section 368(a) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”). Merger Consideration At the effective time of the First Merger, by virtue of the First Merger and without any action on the part of any holder thereof, each share of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, of Ther…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Departure of Directors By the operation of the First Merger, all of the directors of Thermon ceased to be directors of Thermon and members of any and all committees of Thermon’s board of directors, effective as of the effective time of the First Merger. This was not a result of any disagreement between the Company and the directors on any matter rel…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the consummation of the Mergers, CECO paid or caused to be paid, on behalf of Thermon, all amounts necessary to satisfy and discharge in full the then-outstanding obligations of Thermon under that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated September 29, 2021, by and among Thermon Holding Corp., Thermon Canada Inc., the other financial institutions or entities party thereto from time to time and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N…
“We are also raising our GAAP EPS guidance to approximately $1.62 to $1.77 per share.”