Reading TG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TG free→Reading TG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TG free→NYSEIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral, indicating no significant strengths or weaknesses in these areas. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation suggests that TG trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.19 TG trades at 10× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$434.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,237.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect how much it costs to borrow money. This can change how much people spend, which impacts Tredegar.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.Results of Operations and Financial Condition. At Tredegar Corporation’s (the “Company”) 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, two of the Company’s incumbent directors, George C. Freeman, III and Carl E. Tack, III, did not receive a majority of the votes cast for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”). In accordance with the Co…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TG Tredegar Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Maintain capital expenditures for Bonnell Aluminum at $20 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures for Bonnell Aluminum are projected to be $20 million in 2026. The company has consistently reiterated this capex target, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy for the year.
“Capital expenditures for Bonnell Aluminum are projected to be $20 million in 2026.”
“Capital expenditures for Bonnell Aluminum are projected to be $20 million in 2026.”
Expect a decline in surface protection volumes in the first quarter of 2026 due to inventory corrections and maintenance.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management forecasted a decline in surface protection volumes for 2026-Q1 due to a significant customer's inventory correction and scheduled maintenance. The financials do not provide specific volume data, so the impact remains qualitative.
“We are forecasting that surface protection volumes will soften in the first quarter of 2026.”
Why it matters: GDP growth shows how well the economy is doing. This can affect Tredegar's market.
Confirms one read:GDP growth reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This report can show consumer spending trends, which may impact Tredegar's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth reported above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth reported below -0.5% month over month.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing or document.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing or document.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Tredegar Corporation (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board from seven to eight and elected David Parks as director of the Company, in each case, effective immediately. Mr. Parks will be named to one or more committees of the Board at the next scheduled Board meeting. The Board a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. This Current Report on Form 8-K/A amends the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Tredegar Corporation (the “Company”) on November 20, 2025 (the “Prior 8-K”). As disclosed in the Prior 8-K, the Company’s Board of Directors elected Arijit (Bapi) DasGupta as the Company’s President and Chief Executive Officer and Frasier W. Brickhouse, II as the Compa…