Reading SUI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SUI free→Reading SUI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SUI free→NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 109% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $124.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $124 SUI trades at 32× p/e — 2.2× the 14× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $59 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $133–$151. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 111% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.48 (-10.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 72% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.6% above current price.
2 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$198.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,149.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report shows how the company is doing and market trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are better than expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue and profit margins are worse than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SUI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
on Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. This report contains various "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and the Company intends that such forward-looking statements will be subject to the saf…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$133.00 – $151.00 (median $144.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Family Residential REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SUI Sun Communities Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | expensive | low |
AVB AvalonBay Communities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | full | low |
EQR Equity Residential | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | low |
ESS Essex Property Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | low |
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | low |
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing North American Same Property NOI growth guidance by approximately 25 basis points.
Raise Full-Year 2026 Core FFO per Share Guidance by $0.04, an approximately 60 basis points increase.
Authorize a stock repurchase program allowing the company to repurchase up to $1 billion of its common stock.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger recovery in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Real estate revenue growth speeds up above 5% each year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can show shifts in spending and economic health.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims are down a lot. This suggests the economy is improving.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims are up. This shows possible weakness in the economy.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 21, 2026, Sun Communities Operating Limited Partnership (“SCOLP”), on behalf of itself and two of its subsidiaries (collectively, the “Sellers”), entered into an agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Panther Bidco Limited (“Buyer”) pursuant to which SCOLP agreed to sell to Buyer all of the outstanding equity of the subsidiaries (collectively, “Park Holidays”) through which Sun Communities, Inc. (the “Company”) operates all of its business…
Material Impairments In connection with the Transaction described in
Financial Statements and Exhibits Stock Repurchase Program Effective May 27, 2026, the Board of Directors of Sun Communities, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized a stock repurchase program (the “Stock Repurchase Program”) under which the Company may repurchase up to $1 billion of its common stock through May 27, 2027. The Stock Repurchase Program renews the Company’s previous stock repurchase program and provides the Company with continued flexibility to repurchase shares of its common stock. Und…
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. As previously discussed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 27, 2026 (the "Original 8-K"), the Audit Committee (the "Committee") of the Boar d of Directors of Sun Communities, Inc. (the " Company " ) appointed Deloitte & Touche LLP ( " Deloitte " ) as the Company's new independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. On May 12, 2026 (the "Effective Date"), the Company formally engaged Deloit…