Reading AIV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track AIV free→NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the company is capital-friendly in its capital moves. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while AIV's earnings yield is above typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If AIV cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.88 AIV trades at 1× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $2.32 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$71.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$208.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,648.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in sector headwinds could impact AIV's performance. A shift may improve its market position.
Confirms:Sector regime status improves from headwind to neutral or tailwind.
Disproves:Sector regime status remains a headwind.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AIV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets As previously reported, on December 10, 2025, Apartment Investment and Management Company (“Aimco”) and Aimco OP L.P. (collectively, the “Company” or “Seller”), through Aimco Elm Creek, L.P., Aimco Elm Creek Townhomes Three, LLC, Aimco Yorktown L.P., 2200 Grace Owner, LLC, Aimco Hyde Park Tower, L.L.C., Church Street Associates Limited Partnership, and Williamsburg Limited Partnership, each a subsidiary of the Company, entered into an agreeme…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Family Residential REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AIV Apartment Investment and Management Co | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
AVB AvalonBay Communities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | low |
EQR Equity Residential | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | low |
ESS Essex Property Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | low |
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | low |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aimco is actively pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its asset portfolio.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Aimco completed acquisitions in both 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1, indicating a focus on enhancing its portfolio. The trajectory shows consistent acquisition activity, aligning with the growth strategy.
“Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets was reported on March 30, 2026.”
“Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets was reported on December 23, 2025.”
Aimco aims to maintain positive cash flow from operations to support its financial stability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities decreased from $9.67 million in 2025-Q2 to $3.83 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows a decline in cash flow, indicating challenges in maintaining positive cash flow from operations.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a good change in the real estate market. It may boost investor trust in AIV's results.
Confirms:Revenue growth for AIV increases above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
and Exhibit 99.1 is furnished by the Company in accordance with the rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events As previously announced, on November 10, 2025, the Board of Directors of Apartment Investment and Management Company (“Aimco” or the “Company”) approved a Plan of Sale and Liquidation, providing for the sale or disposition of all the Company’s assets, winding down the Company’s business and affairs and terminating the Company’s existence by voluntary dissolution. In connection with the Plan of Sale and Liquidation, the Company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commissio…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets As previously reported, on December 30, 2024, certain subsidiaries of Aimco and Aimco OP L.P. (collectively, the “Company” or “Seller”) entered into an Interests Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Brickell Agreement”) with Brickell Bay Property Owner LLC (the “Purchaser”). The Purchaser is not affiliated with the Seller. Under the terms of the Brickell Agreement, the Seller agreed to sell to the Purchaser the ownership interests in its subsidi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 26, 2025, Aimco Development Company, LLC (the “Company”), an affiliate of Apartment Investment and Management Company (“Aimco”) and the employer entity for Aimco’s employees, entered into a letter agreement with Wesley Powell, Aimco’s Chief Executive Officer (the “Powell Letter Agreement”). The Compensation and Human Resources Committee…
“Cash from operating activities was $3.83 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $8.93 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $9.67 million.”