Reading UMH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UMH free→Reading UMH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UMH free→NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If UMH cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 UMH trades at 5× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 3.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.02. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$216.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,742.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect borrowing costs for UMH and overall market conditions. This could impact the real estate sector.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for UMH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of Anna T. Chew, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer On May 28, 2026, UMH Properties, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that effective June 1, 2026, Anna T. Chew will retire from the role of the Company’s Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) and Treasurer. In connection with the transition of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Family Residential REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UMH UMH Properties, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AVB AvalonBay Communities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | low |
EQR Equity Residential | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
ESS Essex Property Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | low |
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | low |
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
UMH aims to tighten its normalized FFO guidance range to $0.98-$1.04 per diluted share.
UMH has completed acquisitions as part of its growth strategy.
UMH has amended and extended its existing unsecured revolving credit facility.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a stronger market position for UMH. This would be important as the sector is currently maturing and slowing down.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up to over 7% from last year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 7, 2026, UMH Properties, Inc. (“UMH” or the “Company”) entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the Amendment” or the “Amended Facility”) to amend and extend its existing unsecured revolving credit facility (the “Facility”). The Facility is syndicated with three banks led by BMO Capital Markets Corp. (“BMO”), JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. as joint lead arrangers and joint book runners with BMO Bank N.A…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Other Events. Amendment No. 1 to the Equity Distribution Agreement On May 12, 2026, UMH Properties, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into Amendment No. 1 to the Equity Distribution Agreement (the “Distribution Agreement Amendment”) with BMO Capital Markets Corp., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, B. Riley Securities, Inc. and Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC , as distribution agents (the “Distribution Agents”), amending that certain Equity Distribution Agreement dated…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that it amended and extended its existing unsecured revolving credit facility.