Reading NXRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NXRT free→Reading NXRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NXRT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 NXRT trades at 3× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $55 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.37. 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$269.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,615.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growing operating income is important for long-term success. It shows how well the company controls costs and makes profits.
Confirms:Q2 operating income grew more than 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income fell below 0% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NXRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Loan Purchase and Sale Agreement On June 5, 2026 (the “ closing date ”), NexPoint Residential Trust Operating Partnership, L.P. (the “ OP ”), the operating partnership of NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into a Loan Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with NexBank Capital, Inc. (“ NexBank Capital ”), pursuant to which the OP purchased for $27.2 million all of NexBank Capital’s right, title and interest…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Family Residential REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NXRT NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AVB AvalonBay Communities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | low |
EQR Equity Residential | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | low |
ESS Essex Property Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | low |
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on maintaining growth in operating income through operational efficiencies.
Enhance cash flow from operating activities to support financial stability.
Why it matters: A larger decline in Same Store NOI would signal worsening property performance and cash flow.
Confirms:Q2 Same Store NOI down more than -2.7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 Same Store NOI stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback show that management believes in the stock's value and health.
Confirms:They announced they finished buying back shares.
Disproves:No updates or a halt in buyback activity.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations helps financial health. It allows for reinvestment and paying dividends.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities increases by more than 10% in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities drops or stays the same in Q2.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector grows again, it may help NXRT's performance and outlook.
Confirms one read:Real estate sector revenue growth speeds back up toward 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase above $0.53 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend from the current $0.53 per share.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:A public announcement of a dividend increase by more than 5%.
Disproves:No dividend increase announced during the next earnings call.
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. In a press release dated April 28, 2026, NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (the “Company…
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. In a press release dated February 24, 2026, NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (the “…