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Bluerock Homes Trust Inc (BHM)
AMEXReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$9.44+0.85%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
BHM screens as a weak quality-and-value setup, with recent financial performance weak and management's recent track record volatile. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with performance below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 107% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- AMEX
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Residential
- Market cap
- $38.46M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2022-11-04
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.44. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$4.70consensus
Range $4.70 – $4.70
vs price: +101% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $9.44 BHM trades at 1× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $4.69 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.5x
peer 5.6x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
101%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$4.69
range $4.69 – $4.69
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 101% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
5th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish2 positive, 0 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme sunbelt-migration.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
What management is focused on
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$503.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,335.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for cash from operating activities to improve.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for the company's finances and growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cash from operations is going up. It rises every quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities is falling or staying the same.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BHM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BHM and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AVB, EQR, and ESS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting BHM and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like AVB, EQR, and ESS start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping BHM and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If BHM misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2025-12-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BHM and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-089d agoItem 2.01
COMPLETION OF ACQUISITION OR DISPOSITION OF ASSETS Disposition of Ballast Units Prior to 2026, Bluerock Homes Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”) entered into a joint venture with an unaffiliated third party to acquire single-family residential units located in Arizona, Colorado, and Washington, collectively known as the Ballast portfolio. The Company holds a 95% interest in the joint venture. During the period of January 1, 2026 through June 2, 2026, the Company completed the…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.