Reading ELME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELME free→Reading ELME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELME free→NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 87% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.03 ELME trades at 1× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 87% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -7.27x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$50.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$184.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,742.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can affect how much people want Elme's properties. Strong sales may mean better performance from tenants.
Confirms:Retail sales growth is more than 0.5% from last month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or growth is below 0.5% month-over-month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ELME yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 27, 2026, Elme Bethesda Owner LLC (the “Bethesda Seller”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Elme Communities (the “Company”), entered into a purchase and sale agreement (the “Bethesda Agreement”) with CAPREIT Acquisition Corporation (the “Buyer”) for the sale of Elme Bethesda, a 193-unit community located in Bethesda, Maryland, for a contract sale price of $59.0 million, subject to customary prorations and adjustments (the “Bethesda Sale”). The a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Family Residential REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ELME Elme Communities | — | inexpensive | elevated |
AVB AvalonBay Communities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | low |
EQR Equity Residential | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
ESS Essex Property Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | low |
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | low |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Continue executing the Plan of Sale and Liquidation, selling properties to achieve liquidation goals.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Trust has sold five of the ten properties that remained following the portfolio sale. This indicates progress in executing the Plan of Sale and Liquidation, with a focus on achieving liquidation goals. The trajectory shows delivering on the stated plan.
“The Trust has sold five of the ten properties that remained...”
“The Trust has entered into two purchase and sale agreements...”
“Plan of Sale and Liquidation approved by the shareholders...”
Continue to maintain a dividend of $0.18 per share as part of shareholder returns.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remains at $0.18, consistent with previous quarters. This reflects a stable approach to shareholder returns, with no change in the dividend amount over the period, indicating a consistent capital allocation strategy.
“Dividend per share remains at $0.18...”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.18...”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.18...”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.18...”
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This can affect how stable Elme's tenants are.
Confirms:Weekly claims fall below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims rise above 250,000.
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Elme Communities (the “Trust”) provided an update regarding the status of ongoing liquidation activities under the Trust’s Plan of Sale and Liquidation approved by the shareholders on October 30, 2025 (the “Plan of Sale and Liquidation”). The update noted, among other things, that as of May 11, 2026, the Trust has sold five of the ten properties that remained with the Trust following the closing of the 19-asset portfolio sale to an affiliate of Cortland Partners…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Trustee Matters On January 21, 2026, Ellen M. Goitia and Ron D. Sturzenegger each notified Paul McDermott, the Chairman of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) and President and Chief Executive Officer of Elme Communities (the “Trust” or “Elme”), that they intended to resign from the Board, effective as of the end of the first business day after the…
Other Events. On January 23, 2026, the Trust provided an update regarding the status of ongoing liquidation activities under the Trust’s Plan of Sale and Liquidation. The update noted, among other things, that as of January 23, 2026, the Trust has entered into two purchase and sale agreements, which are no longer subject to ongoing inspection periods, pursuant to which it expects to sell three of its ten remaining properties to various buyers for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $155…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On November 10, 2025, Elme Communities (the “Company”) and Susan Gerock, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer, agreed to a mutual separation, pursuant to which Ms. Gerock resigned from all positions she held with the Company effective as of November 14, 2025 (the “Effective Date”). In connection with her resignation, on November 14,…