NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NXRT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.76-1.73%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	64.98M
EPS	—	-0.522
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	256.73M
EPS	—	-1.548
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	262.82M
EPS	—	-2.166

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities to reach at least $28.32M in 2025-Q1	A supporting condition in NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $28.32M.	Under Pressure	Cash from operations falls below $6.09M in future quarters	Cash from operations: $24.422M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $28.32M. The stored target says 2025-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202624,422,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $24.4M in 2026-Q2 and $23.3M in 2026-Q1, up from $19.9M in 2025-Q2 but down from $28.3M in 2025-Q1. The trajectory shows variability with no clear sustained improvement, indicating mixed progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Dividend per share to increase to at least $0.53 in Q1 2026	The company increased its dividend from $0.51 to $0.53 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.51 in future quarters	Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.53. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bd6e79d2-905e-4211-8b02-2a8fad967919. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $8.52M in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $7.42M to $8.52M in one year.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $7.42M in future quarters	Operating income: $7.055M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.52M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20267,055,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bd6e79d2-905e-4211-8b02-2a8fad967919. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income was $7.1M in 2026-Q2, down from $8.5M in 2026-Q1 and $7.9M in 2025-Q2, slightly below $7.4M in 2025-Q1. The trajectory is mixed with some decline in recent quarter, indicating limited progress in sustaining growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.26B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$261,968,790	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$262,068,790	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$261,968,790	2 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$261,968,790	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$261,968,790	2 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$261,968,790	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	5	1
2026-06-01	1	5	1
2026-07-01	1	5	1
2026-08-01	1	5	1
2026-09-01	1	4	1
2026-10-01	1	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialSep 29 · prior Jun 30

$26.00 → $18.00-30.8%

$0$14.30$28.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities to reach at least $28.32M in 2025-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Dividend per share to increase to at least $0.53 in Q1 2026Dividend per share: $0.53 per share
Operating income growth to at least $8.52M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a real estate income and property-upgrade thesis, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent company momentum has improved, though operating-income progress is mixed.

What's priced into NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.

The valuation evidence says NXRT is cheap versus peers, with the market’s expectations below the model’s view. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but confidence in the valuation read is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results show strength: NXRT reported two recent earnings beats, and property upgrades increased in volume and rent premium in 2026-Q2. Dividend maintenance and growth are on track, but operating income fell from the prior quarter and was below the year-earlier quarter, while the sector backdrop remains a headwind.

What NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis is helped if the Fed cuts rates or major real estate peers keep reporting strong results and raising guidance. A cut to NXRT’s guidance on its next call would be a meaningful negative; sustained operating-income growth and progress in property upgrades are also important tests.