Sun Communities Inc (SUI)

NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-10-23

$120.24+0.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sun Communities Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.35 → 3.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	449.94M
EPS	—	0.536
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.98B
EPS	—	-6.066
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.99B
EPS	—	3.338

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stock Repurchase Program Execution	The company started a $1 billion stock buyback program.	Intact	Stock buyback program is canceled or materially reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Raise Full-Year 2026 Core FFO per Share Guidance	It raised full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $6.97 per share.	Intact	Core FFO per share growth fails to increase by $0.04 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 Core FFO per Share guidance from an initial range of $6.83-$7.03 to $6.87-$7.07, reflecting confidence in operational performance. The trajectory shows delivering progress consistent with guidance updates. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free Cash Flow per Share	It raised full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance to about $6.97 per share.	Intact	Free cash flow per share falls below $6.87 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase North American Same Property NOI Growth	Sun Communities focuses on growing North American rental income.	Intact	NOI growth fails to increase by 0.25% basis points in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. North America Same Property NOI grew 6.3% in 2026-Q1 and 6.0% in 2026-Q2, with management raising full-year 2026 guidance to a 4.5% - 5.3% growth range. The trajectory is delivering consistent NOI growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.34

Unavailable → $3.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.99B

$2.17B → $1.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,167,160,750	3 / 10
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,167,160,750	3 / 10
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,167,160,750	3 / 10
2026-07-27	$2.71	$2,188,128,949	5 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,167,160,750	3 / 10
2026-07-29	$2.71	$2,126,996,948	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,141,658,150	3 / 10
2026-08-03	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,141,658,150	3 / 10
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,141,658,150	3 / 10
2026-08-08	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,141,658,150	3 / 10
2026-08-10	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$2.80	$2,090,168,549	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.17	$2,007,304,816	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.35	$2,005,126,233	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$3.35	$1,988,702,066	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$3.35	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$3.34	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$3.34	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$3.34	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$3.34	$1,988,285,400	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	5	1
2026-06-01	13	4	1
2026-07-01	14	4	1
2026-08-01	14	5	1
2026-09-01	14	5	1
2026-10-01	14	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Aug 10

$141.00 → $136.00-3.5%

UBSOct 6 · prior Sep 21

$136.00 → $117.00-14.0%

$0$77.55$155.10

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stock Repurchase Program ExecutionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Raise Full-Year 2026 Core FFO per Share GuidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free Cash Flow per ShareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Increase North American Same Property NOI GrowthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sun Communities Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SUI is a real estate operator with a durable-premium profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with strong recent performance and robust earnings quality, though confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into Sun Communities Inc

The evidence describes SUI as expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.48; model confidence is low. The priced-in signal is tagged unjustified, but overall fragility is low because the evidence does not show the broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, same-property net operating income, or income from comparable properties after operating expenses, has grown consistently, and management raised its 2026 growth guidance. Core funds from operations per share guidance also rose, but progress on that priority is rated mixed; an upcoming guidance cut is a meaningful risk, while recent financial performance remains strong.

What Sun Communities Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued operating delivery and whether management maintains guidance. Lower interest rates and continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would weaken the case. Recent acquisition activity and an equity issuance are relevant capital-allocation events, but the evidence gives limited detail on their effects.