Reading STOK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STOK free→Reading STOK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STOK free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. What it hinges on includes potential guidance cuts, which could negatively impact the stock, and sector trends, where performance from bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX could influence STOK's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 STOK trades at 10× p/s, in line with its 9× p/s peer median. Our $35 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.81 → $-0.76 (+6.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$541.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,716.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Stoke's performance. The sector is currently slowing down.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth moves back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STOK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter end March 31, 2026.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STOK Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Stoke aims to complete enrollment of 150 patients in the Phase 3 study of zorevunersen by Q2 2026.
Stoke plans to use funds from the Biogen collaboration to support operations through 2028.
Stoke has entered into a lease agreement to expand its office and laboratory space in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (d) On April 3, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (“Stoke” or the “Company”), increased the size of the Board to ten (10) directors and, following the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, appointed G. Clare Kahn, Ph.D. to serve on the Board as a Class I director, effec…
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountants. (a) Dismissal of Previous Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On March 23, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The reports of KPMG on the consolidated financial statements of the Company as of and for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 did not cont…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 13, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a discretionary bonus of $697,125 for Ian F. Smith, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer (the “Bonus”). Mr. Smith did not participate in the Company’s 2025 annual bonus program. The determination to grant Mr. Smith the Bonus was based up…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 21, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a new lease for its corporate headquarters and laboratory with NWALP PHOP Property Owner LLC, located at 245 Fifth Avenue, Waltham, Massachusetts (the “Lease Agreement”), in order to expand its office and laboratory space. The Lease Agreement premises include approximately 98,500 square feet. The Lease Agreement will expire on March 31, 2038, and includes two options to furth…