Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. (STOK)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.04-2.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	8.21M
EPS	—	-0.979
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	32.03M
EPS	—	-3.644
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	44.83M
EPS	—	-3.592

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain funding for operations through 2028 via Biogen collaboration	It has funding from Biogen to support operations through 2028.	Intact	Funding runs out before 2028	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Cash and equivalents increased slightly from $411 million in 2026-Q1 to $420 million in 2026-Q2. Management expects these funds to support operations through potential commercialization in early 2028. The trajectory is delivering with a stable strong cash position. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete enrollment of 150 patients in Phase 3 study of zorevunersen	Stoke is advancing its Phase 3 study for zorevunersen.	Intact	Enrollment not completed by end of Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of at least $10.6 million in 2025	The company expects revenue of at least $10.6 million in 2025.	Broken	Revenue falls below $10.6 million in 2025	Revenue: $9.325M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20269,325,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0f22f425-5723-46fa-85b0-27e3dd88ec64. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.59

$-3.16 → $-3.59 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.04B

$0.05B → $0.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$-3.09	$46,504,360	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$-3.09	$46,504,360	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-08-02	$-3.09	$46,504,360	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$-3.16	$47,140,727	8 / 8
2026-08-04	$-3.23	$44,037,333	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$-3.23	$44,037,333	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$-3.34	$48,104,360	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$-3.52	$40,867,500	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$-3.45	$47,855,000	10 / 10
2026-08-10	$-3.45	$47,855,000	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$-3.52	$40,867,500	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$-3.52	$40,867,500	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$-3.52	$40,867,500	8 / 8
2026-08-15	$-3.52	$40,867,500	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$-3.52	$40,867,500	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$-3.52	$40,867,500	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$-3.52	$40,867,500	9 / 8
2026-08-19	$-3.52	$40,867,500	9 / 8
2026-08-20	$-3.52	$40,867,500	9 / 8
2026-08-21	$-3.52	$40,867,500	9 / 8
2026-08-22	$-3.54	$44,826,484	9 / 8
2026-08-23	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-08-31	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-01	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-02	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-12	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-13	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-14	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-15	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-16	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-17	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-18	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-19	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-20	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-21	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-22	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-23	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-24	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-25	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-26	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-27	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-28	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-29	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-09-30	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-01	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$-3.54	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$-3.58	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$-3.58	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-12	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-13	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-14	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-15	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-16	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-17	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-18	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-19	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-20	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-21	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-22	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-23	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9
2026-10-24	$-3.59	$44,826,484	10 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	0	0
2026-06-01	12	0	0
2026-07-01	13	0	0
2026-08-01	14	0	0
2026-09-01	14	0	0
2026-10-01	14	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain funding for operations through 2028 via Biogen collaborationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Complete enrollment of 150 patients in Phase 3 study of zorevunersenDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue of at least $10.6 million in 2025Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a clinical-stage biotechnology company whose value depends on drug development milestones, rather than established earnings. Its long-term thesis is on watch: key programs are advancing, but recent financial performance is weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.

The valuation model indicates STOK is expensive versus peers, with some expectations tied to the potential of its pipeline. Model confidence is low, and the evidence says the expensive valuation is not matched by a broader stack of weak and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, an earnings miss has weighed on the thesis, and the next report carries risk in an industry with frequent misses. Over the multi-year view, management reports zorevunersen enrollment is complete and the planned rolling regulatory submission remains on track; cash is expected to fund operations into 2028.

What Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on the planned Q1 2027 rolling submission and Q3 2027 data readout for zorevunersen, along with continued progress in STK-002 and SYNGAP1. A guidance cut or further economic weakening would add pressure, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.