Reading STAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STAA free→Reading STAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STAA free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, STAA is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 141% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 the market pays 65× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 65× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $14 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $18–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 141% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.39x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.23 (+15.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$191.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$550.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,365.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in China is key for STAAR's recovery. It signals market demand and operational success.
Confirms:Q2 net sales in China exceed $30 million, indicating strong demand.
Disproves:Q2 net sales in China are under $25 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Strong Q1 indicates revenue growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Interim Co-Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer — Deborah Andrews: Compensation increase for Deborah Andrews in recognition of her contributions and competitive market data.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$18.00 – $40.00 (median $31.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STAA STAAR Surgical Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | high |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through market share gains and higher ASPs.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Strive to achieve positive net income through revenue growth and cost control.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Operating income goes up compared to last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows STAAR is keeping costs low and making money.
Confirms:Operating income will be above breakeven in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income stays negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows a big gain in financial performance. This is a good sign.
Confirms:Net income reported as positive for the quarter.
Disproves:Net income remains negative for the quarter.
Why it matters: EVO+ ICL's success can boost margins and sales. It reflects STAAR's innovation strategy.
Confirms:EVO+ ICL sales in China reach over $10 million in the first quarter post-launch.
Disproves:EVO+ ICL sales in China are under $5 million. This shows weak adoption.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the company's momentum. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA means STAAR is in good financial shape and works well.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is over $20 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 falls below $15 million.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Alcon overhang fading supports revenue growth.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Durable turnaround signals sustained revenue growth.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Price target increase reflects positive Q1 performance.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
China rebound suggests growth opportunities.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Increased demand in China supports revenue growth.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Earnings call highlights record sales surge.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Return to record sales indicates strong growth.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, STAAR Surgical Company (the “Company”) published a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended April 3, 2026, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by this reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, STAAR Surgical Company (the “Company”) published a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year ended January 2, 2026, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by this reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of STAAR Surgical Company (the “Company”) appointed Warren Foust and Deborah Andrews as Interim Co-Chief Executive Officers, effective February 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). As previously announced, in connection with a Cooperation Agreement entered into between the Company and Broadwood P…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 4, 2026, STAAR Surgical Company (the “Company”) entered into a letter agreement with Nathaniel Sisitsky, the Company’s Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary (the “Letter Agreement”), that provides for Mr. Sisitsky’s termination of employment, effective as of February 4, 2026 (the “Separation Date”). Mr. Sisitsky’s termination of e…