STAAR Surgical Company (STAA)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.61+0.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge STAAR Surgical Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.54 → 0.55 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-03
Revenue	—	68.4M
EPS	—	-0.039
Annual ending 2027-01-02
Revenue	—	334.34M
EPS	—	0.291
Annual ending 2028-01-02
Revenue	—	363.44M
EPS	—	0.547

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income remains positive at $5.2M in Q1 2026	Net income turned positive at $5.2M, showing a strong recovery.	Intact	Net income falls below $5.2M in 2026-Q1	Net income: $8.058M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.2M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 20268,058,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1121a644-9bce-4bc2-aac3-d0de5a40c052. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to positive $8.0M in Q1 2026	Operating income improved from -$57.4M to $8.0M in the same period.	Intact	Operating income falls below $8.0M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $10.101M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.0M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 202610,101,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1121a644-9bce-4bc2-aac3-d0de5a40c052. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $93.5M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in STAAR Surgical Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $93.5M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $93.5M in 2026-Q1	Revenue: $93.535M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $93.5M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 202693,535,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1121a644-9bce-4bc2-aac3-d0de5a40c052. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.55

$0.96 → $0.55 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$0.36B

$0.36B → $0.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.96	$362,969,293	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.96	$361,998,413	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.96	$361,998,413	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.96	$361,998,413	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.96	$361,998,413	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.96	$361,998,413	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.54	$363,611,342	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$0.54	$363,609,724	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$0.54	$363,182,451	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$0.54	$363,182,451	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$0.54	$363,182,451	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$0.54	$363,182,433	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$0.54	$363,182,433	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$0.54	$363,182,433	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$0.54	$363,182,433	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$0.55	$364,118,797	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$0.55	$364,118,797	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$0.55	$364,118,797	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$0.55	$364,118,797	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$0.55	$363,440,676	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.55	$363,440,676	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.55	$363,442,456	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.55	$363,441,186	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	0
2026-06-01	3	9	0
2026-07-01	3	8	1
2026-08-01	3	8	1
2026-09-01	4	8	1
2026-10-01	4	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Veritas Investment ResearchSep 29

$31.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$17.05$34.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income remains positive at $5.2M in Q1 2026Net income: $8.058M
Operating income improves to positive $8.0M in Q1 2026Operating income: $10.101M
Revenue grows to at least $93.5M in Q1 2026Revenue: $93.535M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

STAAR Surgical Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable compounder, because its earnings record is still described as loss-making despite recent profits. The long-term thesis is intact, with strong recent performance and improving margins, but leadership changes and uneven earnings add uncertainty.

What's priced into STAAR Surgical Company

The valuation evidence is mixed: STAA is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a substantial premium to peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and the priced-in signal is tagged as justified with low fragility, suggesting the market’s expectations are not flagged as especially vulnerable.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and profitability have improved: revenue more than doubled year over year in 2026-Q2, and operating income and net income turned positive from losses a year earlier. Management is on track on growth and margin priorities, but product development progress is mixed, and guidance cuts or weaker economic data could challenge the results.

What STAAR Surgical Company hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in key markets and further margin gains, alongside execution through the CEO transition. Weaker guidance or rising recession concerns would be negative; continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.