Reading SMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMR free→Reading SMR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMR free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SMR trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 768% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and the potential for GDP growth to slow. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.89, SMR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 25× p/s (8.1× the 3× p/s peer median, and 0.4× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~708% near-term growth vs our ~-60% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $1.22 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $9.00–$20. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 708% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -60%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.95x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.14 → $-0.13 (+8.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$407.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,095.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,286.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, and recent financial performance was weak. Earnings quality continued to be characterized as loss-making.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report shows job growth and unemployment rates, which affect economic health. It can impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:The report shows job growth above 250,000 and unemployment below 4.0%.
Confirms the other:Job growth is below 100,000 or unemployment rises above 4.5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$9.00 – $20.00 (median $15.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMR Nuscale Power Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 0 of 100 | — | high |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector makes more money, Nuscale could also do well.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This report shows wholesale inflation. It can hint at future changes in consumer prices.
Confirms one read:PPI shows an increase of less than 0.3% month over month.
Confirms the other:PPI increases by more than 0.6% month over month.