Reading SMBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMBK free→Reading SMBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SMBK free→
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If SMBK cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 SMBK trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 15% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.84 → $0.90 (+6.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$251.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,328.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can change loan demand and profits. SmartFinancial's margins might be affected.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SMBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Item 7.01 Regulat…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SMBK SmartFinancial, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
SmartFinancial aims to maintain stable earnings per share guidance at $0.81 for the fiscal year ending 2026.
SmartFinancial continues to declare quarterly cash dividends, with the latest being $0.09 per share.
SmartFinancial promotes internal leadership, with Cynthia A. Cain appointed as COO.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show a weak economy. This can hurt SmartFinancial's loans.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims are still under 300,000.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact SmartFinancial's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 30, 2026, SmartFinancial, Inc. (“ SmartFinancial ”) issued a press release announcing that, on April 30, 2026, the board of directors of SmartFinancial (the “ Board ”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share of SmartFinancial common stock (the “ Dividend ”) payable on June 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 15, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and inc…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 31, 2026, SmartBank, the wholly-owned subsidiary of SmartFinancial, Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced that Cynthia A. Cain was promoted to the position of Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately. Cynthia A. Cain, age 53, has served as the Chief Accounting Officer of the Company since August of 2022. Ms. Cain has 30 years of experienc…
of this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Item 7.01 Regulat…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On January 30, 2026, SmartFinancial, Inc. (“ SmartFinancial ”) issued a press release announcing that, on January 29, 2026, the board of directors of SmartFinancial (the “ Board ”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share of SmartFinancial common stock (the “ Dividend ”) payable on March 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 13, 2026. In addition, SmartFinancial announced that the Board authorized a new share repurcha…