SmartFinancial, Inc. (SMBK)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$49.34+0.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SmartFinancial, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.19 → 4.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	58.65M
EPS	—	1.003
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	59.02M
EPS	—	0.977
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	226.75M
EPS	—	3.803
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	246.62M
EPS	—	4.155

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.09 per share	It pays a steady dividend of $0.09 per share quarterly.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.09 per share quarterly	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Continue to beat earnings estimates	The bank has beaten earnings estimates several times recently.	Intact	No earnings beats in next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful transition and performance of new COO	The company is improving management with a new COO.	Intact	COO transition causes disruption or poor results	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS guidance at $0.81 for fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in SmartFinancial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS = $0.81 for FY 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.81 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.96 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS = $0.81 for FY 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.96 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c97a5ab6-a988-4194-83ff-a2efc320e840. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.16

$4.16 → $4.16 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.16	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-26	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-29	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-03	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-10	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-12	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$4.18	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$4.19	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$4.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$4.16	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$4.16	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	3	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 21 · prior Jul 22

$58.00 → $56.00-3.4%

$0$31.90$63.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.09 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Continue to beat earnings estimatesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Successful transition and performance of new COODirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain EPS guidance at $0.81 for fiscal year 2026Diluted EPS: $0.96 per share

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SmartFinancial, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SMBK is a regional bank with a growth-oriented, moderately risky multi-year view. The thesis is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and two reported earnings beats, while management execution is mixed.

What's priced into SmartFinancial, Inc.

Valuation is above peers, with a 1.19 premium measure, while the expectations gap is small and aligned. The evidence tags expectations as justified and fragility as low, though valuation has risen recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, organic expansion has support from reported net organic loan and lease growth, higher revenue, and rising net income and tangible book value. Expense discipline is less clear: noninterest expense rose in the latest quarter, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The stated near-term miss risk is low, but smaller size and recent peer misses remain cautions.

What SmartFinancial, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued organic loan and deposit growth, sound credit quality, and better control of expenses. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup; continued earnings strength at sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.