Reading SCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCI free→Reading SCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCI free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If SCI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 SCI trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $65 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.97 → $0.88 (-9.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 6 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$107.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$229.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,161.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show strong cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The Board announces a quarterly dividend higher than $0.36 per share.
Disproves:The Board announces a quarterly dividend of $0.36 or lower.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SCI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On June 11, 2026, Service Corporation International issued a press release announcing an increase in its share repurchase program authorizing the investment of approximately an additional $472 million, thereby increasing the total amount authorized and available for future share repurchases to $600 million. The attached Exhibit 99.1 is not filed, but is furnished to comply with Regulation FD. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialized Consumer Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SCI Service Corp Intl | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
DASH DoorDash | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ADT ADT Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FTDR Frontdoor, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
HRB H&R Block | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Service Corp Intl aims to increase its quarterly cash dividend, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
SCI focuses on maintaining robust cash flow from operations to support its strategic initiatives and shareholder returns.
SCI aims to achieve earnings growth within its long-term target range of 8% to 12%.
Why it matters: The board's decision on the dividend shows how well the company is doing. A cut could signal financial trouble.
Confirms:The board declares a quarterly dividend of at least thirty-six cents per share.
Disproves:The board cuts the quarterly dividend below thirty-six cents per share.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is vital for funding operations and dividends. Weak cash flow could raise concerns.
Confirms:The company made over $334.5 million in cash from its operations.
Disproves:The company made less than $1,005 million in cash from its operations.
Why it matters: These results will show if cash flow from operations remains strong and if growth is steady.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows cash flow from operations above $150 million.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows cash flow from operations below $100 million.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people want to buy. This affects SCI's business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase greater than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decrease greater than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a change in the sector's growth phase. This could affect future earnings.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the last two quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026 , Service Corporation International issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release, dated April 29, 2026 , is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securitie…
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of thirty-six cents per share of common stock. This represents a 6% increase from the previous quarterly dividend paid of thirty-four cents per share. The attached Exhibit 99.1 is not filed, but is furnished to comply with Regulation FD. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 11, 2026 , Service Corporation International issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release, dated February 11, 2026 , is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is not deemed “filed” for purposes of Section…
Regulation FD Disclosure On February 19, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of thirty-four cents per share of common stock. The attached Exhibit 99.1 is not filed, but is furnished to comply with Regulation FD. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the S…