Medifast, Inc. (MED)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-14
$11.99-0.08%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put MED beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS loss within -$2.75 to -$1.55 range in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance mid -$1.00 vs target range -$2.75 to -$1.55.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 34% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, guidance credibility.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 35% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMED's growth depends on the successful launch and establishment of the Trilivy metabolic health system. Revenue performance has been weak, but the latest earnings beat shows potential for improvement. MED trades at 0.4× price-to-sales, below the peer median of 0.8×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than forecasted, indicating modest expectations. The primary risk is a potential guidance cut, with a 38% probability of missing outlook in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch due to pressure on earnings expectations.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. MED is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 1 analyst currently covering MED (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare MED with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MED Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Specialized Consumer Services — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MED next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Launch and establish Trilivy metabolic health system
Trilivy rollout is crucial for growth and profitability.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Launch and establish Trilivy metabolic health system
Trilivy launch supports growth objectives and enhances brand presence.
New CEO may align with growth objectives.
Experienced CEO could drive strategic growth.