Medifast, Inc. (MED)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$12.14-0.16%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS loss within -$2.75 to -$1.55 range in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance mid -$1.00 vs target range -$2.75 to -$1.55.
Medifast aims to stabilize revenue near $270M to $300M in 2026. The company is improving operating income, reducing losses from -$7.8M to -$3.3M recently. New leadership may help align with growth goals. EPS losses are managed within guided ranges.
Revenue is declining and expected to fall about 18% next year. The company remains unprofitable with EPS losses around -$2.15 in 2026. Market conditions and sector headwinds may worsen results. Leadership changes have not yet reversed the downtrend.
The price is about 45% below our fair value near $20. Analysts expect roughly -18% revenue decline next year, which the market has priced in. Our view is cautious given ongoing losses and weak growth.
Breaks if: EPS loss exceeds -$2.75 in FY26
Control and manage earnings per share loss within the guided range for full year and quarterly 2026 periods.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reported diluted EPS losses of -$0.19 in 2026-Q1 and -$0.28 in 2026-Q2, within the broader full year 2026 guidance range of $0.25 to $1.75 loss per share. Management has consistently reiterated this EPS loss guidance. The trajectory shows ongoing losses but management is maintaining the EPS loss target.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a turnaround investment thesis, as MED is currently navigating through a period of weak financial performance and elevated risks. The company is attempting to stabilize its revenue and manage losses while launching a new product, which could reshape its future.
The current valuation suggests that the market views MED as relatively cheap compared to its peers, but there is a significant expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in ongoing struggles, as reflected in the company's recent financial performance.
Management has set ambitious revenue and EPS loss targets for 2026, despite recent declines in revenue and ongoing losses. The company’s recent launch of the Trilivy metabolic health system represents a strategic shift, but its financial impact is still uncertain.
The long-term thesis hinges on MED's ability to meet its revenue guidance and manage EPS losses effectively. Additionally, the performance of sector peers and macroeconomic factors like inflation will play a critical role in shaping the company's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook. The launch of the Trilivy metabolic health system is crucial for growth and profitability.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Third quarter 2026 loss per share to be in the range of $0.15 to $0.65”
“Full year 2026 loss per share to range from $1.55 to $2.75”
“Full year 2026 loss per share to range from $1.55 to $2.75”
Breaks if: Unexpected CEO or key officer departures occur
Breaks if: Operating income worsens below -$7.8 million
Breaks if: revenue falls below $270 million in FY26
Continue to target full year 2026 revenue within the range of $270 million to $300 million as a key growth objective.
In the next 1-3 years, MED's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.