Medifast, Inc. (MED)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.87-2.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Medifast, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	64.1M
EPS	—	-0.12
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$270M–$300M	287.7M
EPS	—	-1.15
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	273.7M
EPS	—	-0.28

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS loss within -$2.75 to -$1.55 range in 2026	EPS losses are managed within guided ranges.	Under Pressure	EPS loss exceeds -$2.75 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-0.28 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between -$2.75 and -$1.55. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026-0.28 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a60a258-a1fc-4101-b72b-9264df2b5fa4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company reported diluted EPS losses of -$0.19 in 2026-Q1 and -$0.28 in 2026-Q2, within the broader full year 2026 guidance range of $0.25 to $1.75 loss per share. Management has consistently reiterated this EPS loss guidance. The trajectory shows ongoing losses but management is maintaining the EPS loss target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stable leadership supporting growth objectives	A supporting condition in Medifast, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major disruptive departures in key roles.	Improving	Unexpected CEO or key officer departures occur	Qualitative: New CEO appointed, CLO departed New CEO effective June 2026; CLO resigned June 2026; Q2 earnings beat; Trilivy rollout advancing. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating losses improve from -$7.8M to near -$3.3M	The company is improving operating income, reducing losses from -$7.8M to -$3.3M recently.	Under Pressure	Operating income worsens below -$7.8 million	Operating income: $-4.327M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= -$3.3 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 2026-4,327,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a60a258-a1fc-4101-b72b-9264df2b5fa4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. SG&A expenses decreased significantly from $85.5 million in 2025-Q1 to $57.7 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting cost management efforts including the Catalyst program launched in 2026-Q2. However, operating losses increased from -$1.3 million in 2025-Q1 to -$4.3 million in 2026-Q2 due to revenue declines and fixed cost leverage loss. The trajectory shows mixed progress with cost reductions but operating income still negative. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full year 2026 revenue near $270M to $300M	A primary condition in Medifast, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $270 million.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $270 million in FY26	Revenue: $76.384M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $270 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202676,384,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a60a258-a1fc-4101-b72b-9264df2b5fa4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	1	0
2026-06-01	0	1	0
2026-07-01	0	1	0
2026-08-01	0	1	0
2026-09-01	0	1	0
2026-10-01	0	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS loss within -$2.75 to -$1.55 range in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating losses improve from -$7.8M to near -$3.3MPublished status: Under Pressure
Full year 2026 revenue near $270M to $300MPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Medifast, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk turnaround and new-product story, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view remains in a watch state because recent financial performance is weak and Trilivy has little reported financial evidence so far.

What's priced into Medifast, Inc.

The evidence describes MED as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence. Expectations are below the model’s benchmark, while valuation has risen and company quality has fallen, so the cheap-versus-peers label does not remove the execution risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue remains under pressure: it fell from $115.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $76.4 million in 2026-Q2, and management continues to guide to $270 million to $300 million for 2026. Losses continued in the first half, though management reiterated its full-year loss guidance; the next call’s guidance is a key risk. Over the multi-year view, Trilivy could change the business, but its financial contribution is not yet established.

What Medifast, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether management can meet its 2026 revenue guidance despite a declining active coach base, and whether losses remain within guidance. It also depends on Trilivy gaining traction over time and on sector bellwethers continuing to report strong results and guidance.