Reading ADT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADT free→Reading ADT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, though ADT trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.70 ADT trades at 7× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.22 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$243.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,680.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted free cash flow shows ADT's ability to generate cash. This supports their capital return strategy.
Confirms:Adjusted free cash flow for Q2 2026 grows by more than 20% year over year.
Disproves:Adjusted free cash flow growth is less than 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Credit Agreement Amendment On May 27, 2026 (the “Amendment Closing Date”), Prime Security Services Borrower, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Prime Borrower”), Prime Security Services Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Holdings”), and The ADT Security Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ADTSC” and together with Prime Borrower, the “Borrowers”), each a direct or indirect wholly owned subsidiary of ADT Inc. (t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialized Consumer Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADT ADT Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DASH DoorDash | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SCI Service Corp Intl | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | full | moderate |
FTDR Frontdoor, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | moderate |
HRB H&R Block | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on generating significant cash flow to enable direct capital returns to shareholders.
Continue to maintain the dividend at $0.055 per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on enhancing cybersecurity measures to protect cloud-based environments.
Focus on disciplined capital allocation, including share repurchases and investment in growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Changes in RMR show how well ADT keeps customers and grows its subscriber base. This affects future revenue.
Confirms one read:RMR increases to over $365 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:RMR decreases below $355 million by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A good share repurchase plan shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Confirms:ADT repurchases at least $200 million worth of shares by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:ADT fails to repurchase shares or announces a reduction in the buyback plan.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) Resignation of Reed B. Rayman, Nicole Bonsignore and Benjamin Honig from Board of Directors On May 5, 2026, Reed B. Rayman and Nicole Bonsignore, who currently serve as Class III directors on the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of ADT Inc. (the “ Company ”) with terms expiring at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, and Benjami…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, ADT Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is being furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
Other Information. On May 4, 2026, the Company and certain entities managed by Apollo (such entities, the “ Selling Stockholders ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Barclays Capital Inc. and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representatives of the underwriters named therein (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), in connection with the offer and sale by the Selling Stockholders (the “ Offering ”) of 102,000,366 shares of the Company’s common stock, pa…