ADT Inc. (ADT)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.90-1.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ADT Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.31B
EPS	—	0.233
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.22B
EPS	—	0.922
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.36B
EPS	—	0.985

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net cash from operating activities >= $638 million next quarter	ADT generates strong cash flow, with $638 million net cash in Q1 2026.	Intact	net cash from operating activities falls below $500 million next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Enhance cybersecurity to prevent cloud breaches	It is investing in cybersecurity to protect its cloud systems.	Intact	another significant cybersecurity breach occurs	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend at $0.055 per share next quarter	The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.055 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.05 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.055 USD_PER_SHARE. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 30, 20260.055 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 159541a8-f13d-4c96-97c2-4efe963e3248. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Maintained as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company declared and paid a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.055 per share throughout 2025 and 2026-Q2. This steady dividend payment aligns with management's stated commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth >= 1.8% YoY	A primary condition in ADT Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.8% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.97 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$0.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$0.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$0.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$0.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$0.97	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-31	$0.98	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$0.98	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.98	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-13	$0.99	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	2	1
2026-06-01	2	2	1
2026-07-01	2	2	1
2026-08-01	2	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	1
2026-10-01	2	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Jul 31

$7.75 → $7.25-6.5%

$0$4.26$8.53

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net cash from operating activities >= $638 million next quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Enhance cybersecurity to prevent cloud breachesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend at $0.055 per share next quarterDividend per share: $0.06 per share
Revenue growth >= 1.8% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ADT Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ADT is a mature business with a cash-generation and capital-return thesis, rather than a high-growth story. Its multi-year view is intact, and company momentum has improved, though management execution is rated volatile and evidence confidence is medium.

What's priced into ADT Inc.

The valuation evidence points to ADT being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear restrained. The model also shows a peer premium, so the overall comparison is mixed; priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, operating cash flow increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management returned substantial capital in the first half. The latest earnings were in line, while the reported miss risk is low; however, a past deep miss and the industry’s high miss rate remain risks. Over the multi-year view, progress on Wi-Fi sensing and smart home technology is still developing, and a guidance reversal after the recent raise would damage management credibility.

What ADT Inc. hinges on

The key test is whether ADT sustains its recently raised guidance and keeps generating cash while following through on capital allocation priorities. Sector conditions also matter near term: continued strength from AMZN, TSLA, and HD could support the broader sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that support. AI-powered sensing commercialization is another multi-year execution test.