ADT Inc. (ADT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$7.05-2.35%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
ADT generates strong cash flow, with $638 million net cash in Q1 2026. The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.055 per share. It is investing in cybersecurity to protect its cloud systems. The stock trades cheaply with a PE of 7.5, well below peers.
Revenue growth is slow at about 1% year over year. Cybersecurity risks remain a concern after a recent incident. Management is volatile, which may hurt execution. The sector faces headwinds that could pressure margins.
The price is about 54% below our fair value near $15. Analysts expect modest 1.8% revenue growth. The market prices in slow growth but not a turnaround or margin expansion.
Breaks if: net cash from operating activities falls below $500 million next quarter
Focus on generating significant cash flow to enable direct capital returns to shareholders.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on generating cash flow and returning capital to shareholders. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent financial performance that remains competitive within its industry.
The market currently prices ADT as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully accounting for the company's recent improvements and management's commitment to capital returns.
Fundamentally, ADT is likely to continue generating solid cash flow, as evidenced by recent increases in operating cash. However, management's mixed progress on expanding AI technology and maintaining dividends presents some uncertainty.
The future of ADT hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the trajectory of inflation, and the performance of key sector peers like Amazon and Tesla. These elements could significantly influence market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that would weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: another significant cybersecurity breach occurs
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.05 next quarter
Continue paying a quarterly dividend of $0.055 per share to shareholders as part of capital return strategy.
Maintained as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company declared and paid a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.055 per share throughout 2025 and 2026-Q2. This steady dividend payment aligns with management's stated commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
“Board declared a cash dividend of $0.055 per share to holders of common stock, payable October 1, 2026.”
“Board declared a cash dividend of $0.055 per share, payable July 7, 2026.”
“Declared a cash dividend of $0.055 per share, paid quarterly throughout 2025.”
Breaks if: revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ADT's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.