Reading CSV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSV free→Reading CSV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSV free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key bellwethers in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 CSV trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $49 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.81 (+0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$275.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,757.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will provide key insights into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could signal improved demand for Carriage Services.
Confirms:Retail sales increase above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain revenue growth trajectory
Acquisition supports revenue growth trajectory.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On May 6, 2026, Carriage Services, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. (“Oppenheimer & Co.”) and Raymond James & Associates, Inc. (“Raymond James” and together with Oppenheimer & Co., the “Sales Agents”), under which the Company may, from time to time, sell shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share, having an aggregate offering pri…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialized Consumer Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSV Carriage Services, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DASH DoorDash | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SCI Service Corp Intl | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
ADT ADT Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FTDR Frontdoor, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining revenue growth with a target range of $440-$450 million for 2026.
Maintain capital expenditures within the $25-$30 million range for 2026.
Target adjusted free cash flow between $40-$50 million for 2026.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. In the press release dated May 6, 2026, the Company announced and commented on its financial results for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by this reference. The Company’s press release dated May 6, 2026, contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of a company’s performance, financial posi…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION . In the press release dated February 25, 2026 , Carriage Services, Inc. (the “Company”) announced and commented on its financial results for its quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by this reference. The Company’s press release dated February 25, 2026 , contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical meas…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. (c) Appointment of Steven D. Metzger as President and Chief Operating Officer On January 16, 2026, Carriage Services, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed, effective as of February 2, 2026, Steven D. Metzger, age 47, to serve as the Company’s President and Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Metzger’s appointm…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION . In the press release dated November 5, 2025, Carriage Services, Inc. (the “Company”) announced and commented on its financial results for its quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by this reference. The Company’s press release dated November 5, 2025, contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure…