Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$35.41-4.25%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carriage Services, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.64 → 3.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	114.64M
EPS	—	0.902
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	433.19M
EPS	$3.35–$3.55non-GAAP	3.344
EBITDA	$135M–$140Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$40M–$50Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	453.98M
EPS	—	3.628

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex within $25-$30 million in FY26	Capital spending is controlled between $25 and $30 million.	Intact	Capex exceeds $30 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $5.327M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25-$30 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20265,327,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS between $3.35 and $3.55 in FY26	Profit per share is expected near $3.45 to $3.55.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.35 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $3.35-$3.55. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4ed17cf1-d286-4f47-8b6b-93f23d004db1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow $40-$50 million in FY26	Free cash flow aims for $40 to $50 million, supporting financial health.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $40 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $2.225M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $40-$50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262,225,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company maintains adjusted free cash flow guidance of $40-$50 million for 2026. Actual adjusted free cash flow was $13.8 million in the first half of 2026, indicating progress but below half-year run rate needed to meet full-year guidance. Trajectory shows mixed progress with guidance maintained despite external headwinds. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue near $445 million in FY26	A primary condition in Carriage Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$445 million.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $440 million in FY26	Revenue: $102.949M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$445 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026102,949,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4ed17cf1-d286-4f47-8b6b-93f23d004db1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.63

$3.76 → $3.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.45B

$0.46B → $0.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.76	$463,668,800	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$3.76	$463,650,600	5 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.75	$462,650,600	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.75	$462,650,600	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-11	$3.62	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.76	$463,636,200	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$3.76	$463,636,200	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$3.76	$463,636,200	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$3.76	$463,636,200	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$3.63	$455,063,000	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$3.64	$454,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$3.63	$453,984,800	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	5	0	0
2026-07-01	5	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	5	0	0
2026-10-01	5	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Roth CapitalOct 2 · prior Aug 7

$46.00 → $42.00-8.7%

$0$25.30$50.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex within $25-$30 million in FY26Capital expenditures: $5.327M
EPS between $3.35 and $3.55 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.77 per share
Free cash flow $40-$50 million in FY26Free cash flow: $2.225M
Revenue near $445 million in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carriage Services, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CSV is an acquisition-led business with a growth thesis that depends on continued execution. Its long-term thesis is currently intact because recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though confidence has fallen from high to medium and risks are elevated.

What's priced into Carriage Services, Inc.

The evidence describes CSV as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline. Pricing is tagged as justified, not fragile, because weak execution quality is not paired with the full mix of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 42% estimated miss probability make the next report an important check. Management has completed one strategic acquisition and expects more activity, while 2026 capital spending guidance was cut and adjusted free cash flow guidance remains unchanged despite first-half results below the pace needed for the full-year range.

What Carriage Services, Inc. hinges on

The next call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would signal further pressure, while sector peers’ results and guidance may indicate whether the broader tailwind persists. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on whether planned acquisitions support growth without weakening cash generation or capital discipline.