Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$32.17-2.49%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue near $445 million in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $435M-$445M vs ~$445M target.
Carriage Services grows revenue steadily, targeting about $445 million in 2026. Profit per share is expected near $3.45 to $3.55. Capital spending is controlled between $25 and $30 million. Free cash flow aims for $40 to $50 million, supporting financial health.
Revenue growth could slow below 7%. Profit margins and free cash flow may weaken. Recent earnings misses and a soft guidance tone raise concerns.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $39. Analysts expect roughly 7.5% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations but notes risks from recent earnings softness.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $30 million in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.35 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $40 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic acquisitions. The current thesis state is intact, but recent performance has shifted from mild favorable to mixed, indicating some caution is warranted.
The market currently prices CSV as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a fragility in execution quality, which suggests that the stock may not be fully insulated from negative surprises.
Management is focused on growth through acquisitions, which has shown some progress, but there are mixed results in achieving free cash flow targets. Recent financial performance has been strong, but the company has a history of earnings misses, adding some near-term risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute their acquisition strategy successfully and maintain disciplined capital expenditures. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and sector performance from key competitors will significantly influence outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has put pressure on the thesis. Revenue guidance for FY26 is near $445 million, which is at the lower end of expectations. The overall sector backdrop is also a drag, working against the company.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $440 million in FY26
Continue to grow revenue through preneed sales, average price increases, and strategic acquisitions despite volume headwinds.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CSV's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.