Reading HRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRB free→Reading HRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HRB free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HRB is above typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact HRB's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 HRB trades at 7× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.31 → $2.21 (-4.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$355.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,916.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would confirm H&R Block's growth strategy is effective. It shows the company is gaining traction in a tough market.
Confirms:Q4 revenue reported in the range of $3.910 to $3.920 billion.
Disproves:Q4 revenue falls below $3.875 billion, indicating weaker growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, H&R Block, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding the Company’s results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2023-Q3, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialized Consumer Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HRB H&R Block | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
DASH DoorDash | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SCI Service Corp Intl | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
ADT ADT Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FTDR Frontdoor, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can hurt consumer spending. This may affect H&R Block's business.
Confirms:Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims have gone up a lot. This is compared to earlier weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims decrease or stay stable compared to previous weeks.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA target shows strong performance. It also supports the company's growth story.
Confirms:Q4 EBITDA reported in the range of $1.025 to $1.035 billion.
Disproves:If Q4 EBITDA is less than $1.015 billion, it shows weak operations.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows H&R Block is managing costs well. It boosts investor confidence.
Confirms:Operating income is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows good cost control and strong profits.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported at or above $5.10.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS came in under $4.85.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into H&R Block's financial health and outlook.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue and profit are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue and profit are lower than expected.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a change in the growth phase for H&R Block.
Confirms:H&R Block's Q1 revenue growth drops below the median of its historical growth rates.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of historical growth rates.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth is a top priority for H&R Block. It signals better business health.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: The one-time tax benefit could change future earnings. Knowing its effect helps understand profits.
Confirms one read:Future earnings reflect a lower effective tax rate due to the IRS resolution.
Confirms the other:No change in effective tax rate, indicating the benefit was not impactful.
Why it matters: New share buyback plans show management believes in the company's value. This can help the stock price.
Confirms:They announced a new $100 million share buyback for Q4.
Disproves:No new share buyback news may mean management lacks confidence.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show consumer behavior. This impacts H&R Block's business directly.
Confirms one read:June retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:June retail sales report shows decline below 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is crucial for overall revenue and reflects client trust in H&R Block.
Confirms:Tax preparation revenue grew more than 5% from last year.
Disproves:Assisted tax preparation revenue grew less than 2% compared to last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, H&R Block, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding the Company’s results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.