H&R Block (HRB)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$45.14-1.63%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
H&R Block grows revenue about 5% yearly, helped by AI tax assist. Profit rose to $1.02 billion in Q3 2026. The company trades cheap with a PE of 7.6 and strong free cash flow yield of 15%. Analysts expect stable earnings near $5.15 per share next quarter.
Revenue growth could slow below 2% as tax services face competition. Profit margins might shrink if cost savings stall. The market expects a slight revenue decline, reflecting risks to growth.
The price is about 38% below our fair value near $63. Analysts expect about -2% revenue growth. Our view is more optimistic on revenue growth and profit margin improvement.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.85 next quarter
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $958 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a long-term thesis on a stable company with a focus on improving revenue and profitability. The current state reflects a cautious optimism as management executes on their priorities, but risks remain due to external economic factors.
The market currently prices HRB as cheap compared to its peers, with expectations that are slightly below average. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, suggesting that the current valuation is justified given the company's recent performance.
Management has shown consistent progress in increasing revenue and profitability, with recent financial results indicating positive trends. However, there is an elevated risk environment, and while the probability of missing earnings is low, the company has a history of underperformance that warrants attention.
The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as inflation trends and guidance from management. Additionally, the performance of sector peers could influence HRB's momentum in the Consumer Discretionary space.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 27.5 points (from 38.4 to 10.9).
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue growth objectives. Additionally, strong earnings and a dividend boost reinforce this positive outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year
Overall, HRB is positioned for potential growth, but external economic conditions and sector performance will be crucial in shaping its future. Not investment advice.