Service Corp Intl (SCI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$83.31-0.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Service Corp Intl’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.60 → 4.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	1.332
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.47B
EPS	—	4.19
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.63B
EPS	—	4.584

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
quarterly dividend increased to at least $0.36 per share	The company raises its quarterly dividend steadily, now $0.36 per share.	Intact	quarterly dividend falls below $0.34 per share	Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend >= $0.36 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 41891fab-9476-4328-9fe5-56982bab7f81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board increased the quarterly dividend from $0.34 to $0.36 per share in early 2026 and maintained it at $0.36 in Q2 2026. This reflects consistent delivery on the capital allocation priority to increase dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
earnings per share growth within 8%-12% range	The company raises its quarterly dividend steadily, now $0.36 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS growth falls below 8% YoY in FY26	Diluted EPS growth: 4.65% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20264.651163 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 41891fab-9476-4328-9fe5-56982bab7f81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew 8% in Q4 2025 to $1.14 and 9% for full year 2025 to $3.85. The 2026 EPS guidance midpoint is $4.20, consistent with the 8%-12% long-term growth framework. Management is delivering on this earnings growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
net cash from operations near $1 billion	It keeps strong cash flow near $1 billion in 2026.	Intact	net cash from operations falls below $900 million in FY26	Cash from operations: $238.646M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1,000 million net cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026238,646,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly cash from operations ranged from $212.9M in 2025-Q4 to $333.8M in 2026-Q1 and $238.6M in 2026-Q2. The 2026 guidance midpoint for net cash provided by operating activities excluding special items is $1,035M. Management is maintaining strong cash flow consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.58

$4.55 → $4.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.63B

$4.58B → $4.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.55	$4,581,753,860	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$4.55	$4,581,720,520	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$4.55	$4,581,770,524	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$4.55	$4,581,720,520	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$4.55	$4,581,770,524	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.55	$4,581,720,520	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$4.55	$4,581,786,897	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.55	$4,589,341,397	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$4.55	$4,589,341,397	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$4.59	$4,615,719,510	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$4.59	$4,615,719,510	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$4.60	$4,626,647,910	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$4.59	$4,615,719,507	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$4.60	$4,626,570,277	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$4.60	$4,626,570,277	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.60	$4,626,647,907	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$4.58	$4,625,514,857	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

quarterly dividend increased to at least $0.36 per shareDividend per share: $0.36 per share
earnings per share growth within 8%-12% rangePublished status: Under Pressure
net cash from operations near $1 billionCash from operations: $238.646M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Service Corp Intl outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SCI is a durable, earnings-growth business with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, and recent signals have become mildly favorable, though management execution is mixed on cash flow.

What's priced into Service Corp Intl

SCI is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap of 0.34. The evidence marks the priced-in setup as unjustified, while the low fragility reading suggests no specific fragility warning has been triggered.

What the fundamentals likely do

For the multi-year view, management’s 8% to 12% earnings-growth framework is supported by recent adjusted EPS growth and 2026 guidance at the framework’s midpoint. Near-term cash from operations has varied, and the latest signal followed a reported earnings beat, though the evidence also notes recent misses in the company’s history and a quiet, low miss-risk watch.

What Service Corp Intl hinges on

The near-term swing factor is whether SCI maintains guidance on its next call. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, especially given the expensive valuation. Over the multi-year view, continued earnings growth and strong cash generation matter; sector bellwethers’ results and guidance may also affect the sector backdrop.